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icon for Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 46%

Eric Girard 42%

Julie Tourangeau 35%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin 21%

Polymarket
NEW

Marie-Claude Sarrazin 46%

Eric Girard 42%

Julie Tourangeau 35%

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin 21%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Marie-Claude Sarrazin

Marie-Claude Sarrazin

$20 Vol.

46%

icon for Eric Girard

Eric Girard

$20 Vol.

42%

icon for Julie Tourangeau

Julie Tourangeau

$102 Vol.

25%

icon for Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

Marie-Noëlle Aubertin

$94 Vol.

21%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).In the Groulx riding, the recent nomination of Parti Québécois candidate Marie-Claude Sarrazin—a prosecutor from the Gallant Commission examining the SAAQclic scandal—has sharpened competition against incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec Finance Minister Eric Girard. Sarrazin's emphasis on public accountability and fiscal oversight has drawn attention to CAQ governance records ahead of the October 5 provincial election. Projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 continue to favor the CAQ with roughly 70% odds of holding the seat, yet Polymarket pricing reflects a narrower contest influenced by the PQ's targeted challenge, Liberal candidate Julie Tourangeau, and Québec solidaire's Marie-Noëlle Aubertin. Provincial polling trends and local turnout patterns remain key variables that could shift the outcome.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$236
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).In the Groulx riding, the recent nomination of Parti Québécois candidate Marie-Claude Sarrazin—a prosecutor from the Gallant Commission examining the SAAQclic scandal—has sharpened competition against incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec Finance Minister Eric Girard. Sarrazin's emphasis on public accountability and fiscal oversight has drawn attention to CAQ governance records ahead of the October 5 provincial election. Projections from models like 338Canada and Qc125 continue to favor the CAQ with roughly 70% odds of holding the seat, yet Polymarket pricing reflects a narrower contest influenced by the PQ's targeted challenge, Liberal candidate Julie Tourangeau, and Québec solidaire's Marie-Noëlle Aubertin. Provincial polling trends and local turnout patterns remain key variables that could shift the outcome.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$236
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 46%, followed by "Eric Girard" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Marie-Claude Sarrazin" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Girard" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Groulx Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.