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icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?
Economy·Oil

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?
Economy·Oil

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

Aug 28

Oct 7

Aug 28

Oct 7

NEW
Oct 7, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

280M

$0 Vol.

54%

270M

$0 Vol.

49%

260M

$0 Vol.

43%

250M

$0 Vol.

38%

200M

$0 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.US commercial crude inventories recently stabilized near 428.9 million barrels following four consecutive weekly builds, supported by steady domestic production around 13.8 million barrels per day and refinery utilization above 97 percent. Ongoing Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, now at 289.7 million barrels after a 3.7 million barrel weekly draw, continue to pressure total stocks amid geopolitical supply constraints. Trader focus centers on whether high refinery runs, export volumes, and net import levels will reverse the modest commercial builds ahead of the September 25 resolution. The next several EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports, including the September 2 release, will provide key updates on inventory trajectories and seasonal demand shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 7, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.US commercial crude inventories recently stabilized near 428.9 million barrels following four consecutive weekly builds, supported by steady domestic production around 13.8 million barrels per day and refinery utilization above 97 percent. Ongoing Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, now at 289.7 million barrels after a 3.7 million barrel weekly draw, continue to pressure total stocks amid geopolitical supply constraints. Trader focus centers on whether high refinery runs, export volumes, and net import levels will reverse the modest commercial builds ahead of the September 25 resolution. The next several EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports, including the September 2 release, will provide key updates on inventory trajectories and seasonal demand shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 7, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before September 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before September 25, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on September 25, 2026, by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "280M" at 54%, followed by "270M" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" is "280M" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "270M" at 49%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.