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Finance·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of September?

icon for Will gas hit __ by end of September?
Finance·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of September?

Aug 31

Sep 30

Aug 31

Sep 30

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $4.50

$0 Vol.

50%

↑ $4.40

$0 Vol.

50%

↑ $4.30

$0 Vol.

50%

↑ $4.20

$0 Vol.

50%

↓ $4.00

$0 Vol.

51%

↓ $3.90

$0 Vol.

50%

↓ $3.70

$0 Vol.

50%

↓ $3.50

$0 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Elevated crude oil prices near $84–87 per barrel, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions including Iran-related disruptions to Strait of Hormuz flows, have anchored U.S. retail gasoline averages at $4.10–$4.22 per gallon as of late August 2026. This level reflects persistent supply constraints and higher crack spreads despite record domestic production and rebuilding inventories. Seasonal summer demand has supported prices, while EIA forecasts anticipate modest Q3 declines toward $3.80 as margins normalize. Key near-term factors for September resolution include weekly EIA inventory reports, potential weather-driven demand shifts, and any renewed diplomatic signals on energy exports. Trader consensus on hitting specific thresholds will hinge on whether oil stabilizes below $80 or faces further volatility before month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Elevated crude oil prices near $84–87 per barrel, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions including Iran-related disruptions to Strait of Hormuz flows, have anchored U.S. retail gasoline averages at $4.10–$4.22 per gallon as of late August 2026. This level reflects persistent supply constraints and higher crack spreads despite record domestic production and rebuilding inventories. Seasonal summer demand has supported prices, while EIA forecasts anticipate modest Q3 declines toward $3.80 as margins normalize. Key near-term factors for September resolution include weekly EIA inventory reports, potential weather-driven demand shifts, and any renewed diplomatic signals on energy exports. Trader consensus on hitting specific thresholds will hinge on whether oil stabilizes below $80 or faces further volatility before month-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and September 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ $4.00" at 52%, followed by "↑ $4.50" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will gas hit __ by end of September?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of September?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit __ by end of September?" is "↓ $4.00" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $4.50" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.