Recent Iran-Oman negotiations over a joint navigational corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the six-month-old conflict that began February 28, represent the dominant driver shaping trader views on naval transits by year-end. Iran has signaled exclusion of military vessels from commercial routes, while the active U.S. blockade and presence of carriers such as USS Abraham Lincoln continue to support limited facilitated passages. Oil benchmarks reflect these tensions, with Brent near $87 and WTI near $82 as of late August, down on partial reopening hopes after traffic fell to roughly 15 transits daily versus pre-war averages above 90. Persistent attacks, dark transits, and mine risks sustain elevated risk premiums in energy futures, with any escalation or de-escalation by December directly affecting tanker rates, Gulf export volumes, and broader commodity volatility priced into related markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
US
53%
France
51%
Netherlands
51%
Greece
51%
Germany
50%
Australia
49%
Italy
49%
UK
47%
$0.00 Vol.
US
$0 Vol.
53%
France
$0 Vol.
51%
Netherlands
$0 Vol.
51%
Greece
$0 Vol.
51%
Germany
$0 Vol.
50%
Australia
$0 Vol.
49%
Italy
$0 Vol.
49%
UK
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent Iran-Oman negotiations over a joint navigational corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the six-month-old conflict that began February 28, represent the dominant driver shaping trader views on naval transits by year-end. Iran has signaled exclusion of military vessels from commercial routes, while the active U.S. blockade and presence of carriers such as USS Abraham Lincoln continue to support limited facilitated passages. Oil benchmarks reflect these tensions, with Brent near $87 and WTI near $82 as of late August, down on partial reopening hopes after traffic fell to roughly 15 transits daily versus pre-war averages above 90. Persistent attacks, dark transits, and mine risks sustain elevated risk premiums in energy futures, with any escalation or de-escalation by December directly affecting tanker rates, Gulf export volumes, and broader commodity volatility priced into related markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Recent Iran-Oman negotiations over a joint navigational corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the six-month-old conflict that began February 28, represent the dominant driver shaping trader views on naval transits by year-end. Iran has signaled exclusion of military vessels from commercial routes, while the active U.S. blockade and presence of carriers such as USS Abraham Lincoln continue to support limited facilitated passages. Oil benchmarks reflect these tensions, with Brent near $87 and WTI near $82 as of late August, down on partial reopening hopes after traffic fell to roughly 15 transits daily versus pre-war averages above 90. Persistent attacks, dark transits, and mine risks sustain elevated risk premiums in energy futures, with any escalation or de-escalation by December directly affecting tanker rates, Gulf export volumes, and broader commodity volatility priced into related markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Iran-Oman negotiations over a joint navigational corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the six-month-old conflict that began February 28, represent the dominant driver shaping trader views on naval transits by year-end. Iran has signaled exclusion of military vessels from commercial routes, while the active U.S. blockade and presence of carriers such as USS Abraham Lincoln continue to support limited facilitated passages. Oil benchmarks reflect these tensions, with Brent near $87 and WTI near $82 as of late August, down on partial reopening hopes after traffic fell to roughly 15 transits daily versus pre-war averages above 90. Persistent attacks, dark transits, and mine risks sustain elevated risk premiums in energy futures, with any escalation or de-escalation by December directly affecting tanker rates, Gulf export volumes, and broader commodity volatility priced into related markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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