US-Iran military strikes have targeted Hengam Island and other Persian Gulf outposts including Kharg, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb since March 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis and broader conflict. These operations have focused on military sites, ports, and support infrastructure rather than territorial seizure or occupation. Iran continues to assert full sovereignty and operational control over its southern islands, using them for naval and missile positioning, while rejecting any change in status. Trader probabilities remain low because no ground forces have contested Iranian administration, and statements from Tehran emphasize defense of every inch of territory. Potential near-term catalysts include further US or allied airstrikes, renewed negotiations over the strait, or escalation toward amphibious operations, though current evidence points to sustained Iranian control through the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$121,849 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$121,849 Vol.
August 31
$94,301 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran military strikes have targeted Hengam Island and other Persian Gulf outposts including Kharg, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb since March 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis and broader conflict. These operations have focused on military sites, ports, and support infrastructure rather than territorial seizure or occupation. Iran continues to assert full sovereignty and operational control over its southern islands, using them for naval and missile positioning, while rejecting any change in status. Trader probabilities remain low because no ground forces have contested Iranian administration, and statements from Tehran emphasize defense of every inch of territory. Potential near-term catalysts include further US or allied airstrikes, renewed negotiations over the strait, or escalation toward amphibious operations, though current evidence points to sustained Iranian control through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$121,849End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran military strikes have targeted Hengam Island and other Persian Gulf outposts including Kharg, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb since March 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis and broader conflict. These operations have focused on military sites, ports, and support infrastructure rather than territorial seizure or occupation. Iran continues to assert full sovereignty and operational control over its southern islands, using them for naval and missile positioning, while rejecting any change in status. Trader probabilities remain low because no ground forces have contested Iranian administration, and statements from Tehran emphasize defense of every inch of territory. Potential near-term catalysts include further US or allied airstrikes, renewed negotiations over the strait, or escalation toward amphibious operations, though current evidence points to sustained Iranian control through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,849End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran military strikes have targeted Hengam Island and other Persian Gulf outposts including Kharg, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb since March 2026 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis and broader conflict. These operations have focused on military sites, ports, and support infrastructure rather than territorial seizure or occupation. Iran continues to assert full sovereignty and operational control over its southern islands, using them for naval and missile positioning, while rejecting any change in status. Trader probabilities remain low because no ground forces have contested Iranian administration, and statements from Tehran emphasize defense of every inch of territory. Potential near-term catalysts include further US or allied airstrikes, renewed negotiations over the strait, or escalation toward amphibious operations, though current evidence points to sustained Iranian control through the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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