US strikes on Abu Musa in mid-July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified focus on the long-disputed island claimed by the UAE since its 1971 seizure by Iran. Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces continue to maintain bases, air defenses, and maritime capabilities there, with no confirmed shift in administration or territorial control reported through late August. UAE diplomatic pressure and reported involvement in related strikes, alongside US assessments of the island’s role in shipping routes, shape trader views on potential outcomes. Resolution hinges on whether ongoing military or diplomatic developments alter effective Iranian control by the market’s date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$88,468 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$88,468 Vol.
August 31
$81,800 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on Abu Musa in mid-July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified focus on the long-disputed island claimed by the UAE since its 1971 seizure by Iran. Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces continue to maintain bases, air defenses, and maritime capabilities there, with no confirmed shift in administration or territorial control reported through late August. UAE diplomatic pressure and reported involvement in related strikes, alongside US assessments of the island’s role in shipping routes, shape trader views on potential outcomes. Resolution hinges on whether ongoing military or diplomatic developments alter effective Iranian control by the market’s date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$88,468End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on Abu Musa in mid-July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified focus on the long-disputed island claimed by the UAE since its 1971 seizure by Iran. Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces continue to maintain bases, air defenses, and maritime capabilities there, with no confirmed shift in administration or territorial control reported through late August. UAE diplomatic pressure and reported involvement in related strikes, alongside US assessments of the island’s role in shipping routes, shape trader views on potential outcomes. Resolution hinges on whether ongoing military or diplomatic developments alter effective Iranian control by the market’s date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,468End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes on Abu Musa in mid-July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified focus on the long-disputed island claimed by the UAE since its 1971 seizure by Iran. Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces continue to maintain bases, air defenses, and maritime capabilities there, with no confirmed shift in administration or territorial control reported through late August. UAE diplomatic pressure and reported involvement in related strikes, alongside US assessments of the island’s role in shipping routes, shape trader views on potential outcomes. Resolution hinges on whether ongoing military or diplomatic developments alter effective Iranian control by the market’s date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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