Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office through September 30, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment or resignation. The short resolution window limits opportunities for major shifts, and no recent legislative actions, cabinet departures, or institutional signals point to an abrupt end to the term. Historical patterns show presidential removals mid-term remain rare absent extraordinary catalysts. While low-probability scenarios such as a sudden medical crisis, major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or rapid congressional consensus could still intervene before month-end, current conditions support the strong market consensus against an early exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
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NEW
Sep 30, 2026
3% chance
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Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office through September 30, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment or resignation. The short resolution window limits opportunities for major shifts, and no recent legislative actions, cabinet departures, or institutional signals point to an abrupt end to the term. Historical patterns show presidential removals mid-term remain rare absent extraordinary catalysts. While low-probability scenarios such as a sudden medical crisis, major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or rapid congressional consensus could still intervene before month-end, current conditions support the strong market consensus against an early exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office through September 30, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment or resignation. The short resolution window limits opportunities for major shifts, and no recent legislative actions, cabinet departures, or institutional signals point to an abrupt end to the term. Historical patterns show presidential removals mid-term remain rare absent extraordinary catalysts. While low-probability scenarios such as a sudden medical crisis, major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or rapid congressional consensus could still intervene before month-end, current conditions support the strong market consensus against an early exit.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office through September 30, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, Senate removal votes, or confirmed health events that would trigger the 25th Amendment or resignation. The short resolution window limits opportunities for major shifts, and no recent legislative actions, cabinet departures, or institutional signals point to an abrupt end to the term. Historical patterns show presidential removals mid-term remain rare absent extraordinary catalysts. While low-probability scenarios such as a sudden medical crisis, major scandal prompting voluntary departure, or rapid congressional consensus could still intervene before month-end, current conditions support the strong market consensus against an early exit.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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