**Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness suffered a sharp July 2026 collapse after leveraged bets on semiconductor and infrastructure names like SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply while shorts against software moved against it, triggering margin calls and a forced sale of its entire public-equity book to Citadel at a discount.** Assets dropped from a peak near $45 billion to roughly $10 billion, yet the firm retained sizable private holdings, notably in Anthropic, and used the transaction to stabilize operations rather than close. Trader consensus reflected in the 0.3 % implied probability of a wind-down announcement by year-end treats the bailout as evidence the vehicle can continue managing remaining capital. Key swing factors include any future disclosure of further deleveraging or investor redemptions; no additional official announcements have emerged since the late-July rescue.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
$125,089 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
December 31
5%
$125,089 Vol.
August 31
$58,520 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$66,568 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness suffered a sharp July 2026 collapse after leveraged bets on semiconductor and infrastructure names like SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply while shorts against software moved against it, triggering margin calls and a forced sale of its entire public-equity book to Citadel at a discount.** Assets dropped from a peak near $45 billion to roughly $10 billion, yet the firm retained sizable private holdings, notably in Anthropic, and used the transaction to stabilize operations rather than close. Trader consensus reflected in the 0.3 % implied probability of a wind-down announcement by year-end treats the bailout as evidence the vehicle can continue managing remaining capital. Key swing factors include any future disclosure of further deleveraging or investor redemptions; no additional official announcements have emerged since the late-July rescue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Volume
$125,089End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness suffered a sharp July 2026 collapse after leveraged bets on semiconductor and infrastructure names like SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply while shorts against software moved against it, triggering margin calls and a forced sale of its entire public-equity book to Citadel at a discount.** Assets dropped from a peak near $45 billion to roughly $10 billion, yet the firm retained sizable private holdings, notably in Anthropic, and used the transaction to stabilize operations rather than close. Trader consensus reflected in the 0.3 % implied probability of a wind-down announcement by year-end treats the bailout as evidence the vehicle can continue managing remaining capital. Key swing factors include any future disclosure of further deleveraging or investor redemptions; no additional official announcements have emerged since the late-July rescue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$125,089End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness suffered a sharp July 2026 collapse after leveraged bets on semiconductor and infrastructure names like SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply while shorts against software moved against it, triggering margin calls and a forced sale of its entire public-equity book to Citadel at a discount.** Assets dropped from a peak near $45 billion to roughly $10 billion, yet the firm retained sizable private holdings, notably in Anthropic, and used the transaction to stabilize operations rather than close. Trader consensus reflected in the 0.3 % implied probability of a wind-down announcement by year-end treats the bailout as evidence the vehicle can continue managing remaining capital. Key swing factors include any future disclosure of further deleveraging or investor redemptions; no additional official announcements have emerged since the late-July rescue.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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