SpaceX's post-June 2026 IPO trading range, centered near $1.5–1.9 trillion amid share-price volatility between roughly $105 and $140, anchors the $1.75–2.00T bin as the leading outcome at 37.5% implied probability. Q2 revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, fueled by Starlink's connectivity growth and new AI compute contracts with annualized run rates exceeding $25 billion, while Starlink remains the sole profitable segment. Elevated capital expenditures, ongoing net losses, and successive lock-up releases that expanded the float continue to pressure multiples near 100x trailing sales. Institutional stake disclosures and index inclusions have provided recent support, yet sustained momentum through September hinges on execution milestones and broader equity sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.75-$2.00T 41%
$1.50-$1.75T 24%
$2.00-$2.25T 17%
$1.25-$1.50T 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
5%
$1.00-$1.25T
9%
$1.25-$1.50T
11%
$1.50-$1.75T
24%
$1.75-$2.00T
38%
$2.00-$2.25T
17%
$2.25T+
7%
$1.75-$2.00T 41%
$1.50-$1.75T 24%
$2.00-$2.25T 17%
$1.25-$1.50T 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<$1.00T
$116 Vol.
5%
$1.00-$1.25T
$80 Vol.
9%
$1.25-$1.50T
$635 Vol.
11%
$1.50-$1.75T
$99 Vol.
24%
$1.75-$2.00T
$2,698 Vol.
38%
$2.00-$2.25T
$98 Vol.
17%
$2.25T+
$78 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-June 2026 IPO trading range, centered near $1.5–1.9 trillion amid share-price volatility between roughly $105 and $140, anchors the $1.75–2.00T bin as the leading outcome at 37.5% implied probability. Q2 revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, fueled by Starlink's connectivity growth and new AI compute contracts with annualized run rates exceeding $25 billion, while Starlink remains the sole profitable segment. Elevated capital expenditures, ongoing net losses, and successive lock-up releases that expanded the float continue to pressure multiples near 100x trailing sales. Institutional stake disclosures and index inclusions have provided recent support, yet sustained momentum through September hinges on execution milestones and broader equity sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,804End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-June 2026 IPO trading range, centered near $1.5–1.9 trillion amid share-price volatility between roughly $105 and $140, anchors the $1.75–2.00T bin as the leading outcome at 37.5% implied probability. Q2 revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, fueled by Starlink's connectivity growth and new AI compute contracts with annualized run rates exceeding $25 billion, while Starlink remains the sole profitable segment. Elevated capital expenditures, ongoing net losses, and successive lock-up releases that expanded the float continue to pressure multiples near 100x trailing sales. Institutional stake disclosures and index inclusions have provided recent support, yet sustained momentum through September hinges on execution milestones and broader equity sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$3,804End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-June 2026 IPO trading range, centered near $1.5–1.9 trillion amid share-price volatility between roughly $105 and $140, anchors the $1.75–2.00T bin as the leading outcome at 37.5% implied probability. Q2 revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, fueled by Starlink's connectivity growth and new AI compute contracts with annualized run rates exceeding $25 billion, while Starlink remains the sole profitable segment. Elevated capital expenditures, ongoing net losses, and successive lock-up releases that expanded the float continue to pressure multiples near 100x trailing sales. Institutional stake disclosures and index inclusions have provided recent support, yet sustained momentum through September hinges on execution milestones and broader equity sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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