Ongoing hostilities, including recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure alongside Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russian energy targets, reflect continued battlefield commitments from both sides without de-escalation. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-mediated discussions in Geneva earlier in 2026 and subsequent exchanges, have produced no breakthrough on core disputes over territory, security guarantees, or Ukraine's alignment options, with the Kremlin stating in July there is no immediate prospect for resuming substantive talks. Short-term pauses for holidays have not translated into broader agreements, reinforcing trader views that entrenched positions make a formal peace deal unlikely before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$2,584,081 Vol.
$2,584,081 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
$2,584,081 Vol.
$2,584,081 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing hostilities, including recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure alongside Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russian energy targets, reflect continued battlefield commitments from both sides without de-escalation. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-mediated discussions in Geneva earlier in 2026 and subsequent exchanges, have produced no breakthrough on core disputes over territory, security guarantees, or Ukraine's alignment options, with the Kremlin stating in July there is no immediate prospect for resuming substantive talks. Short-term pauses for holidays have not translated into broader agreements, reinforcing trader views that entrenched positions make a formal peace deal unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,584,081End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing hostilities, including recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure alongside Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russian energy targets, reflect continued battlefield commitments from both sides without de-escalation. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-mediated discussions in Geneva earlier in 2026 and subsequent exchanges, have produced no breakthrough on core disputes over territory, security guarantees, or Ukraine's alignment options, with the Kremlin stating in July there is no immediate prospect for resuming substantive talks. Short-term pauses for holidays have not translated into broader agreements, reinforcing trader views that entrenched positions make a formal peace deal unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,584,081End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities, including recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure alongside Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russian energy targets, reflect continued battlefield commitments from both sides without de-escalation. Diplomatic efforts, such as U.S.-mediated discussions in Geneva earlier in 2026 and subsequent exchanges, have produced no breakthrough on core disputes over territory, security guarantees, or Ukraine's alignment options, with the Kremlin stating in July there is no immediate prospect for resuming substantive talks. Short-term pauses for holidays have not translated into broader agreements, reinforcing trader views that entrenched positions make a formal peace deal unlikely before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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