**US officials have consistently opposed mandatory transit fees or tolls through the Strait of Hormuz under international maritime law, viewing the waterway as subject to free transit passage.** In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly proposed that the United States act as “guardian” of the strait and collect a 20% cargo reimbursement fee to offset naval protection costs amid renewed tensions with Iran. That idea was quickly superseded by a pivot to Gulf state trade and investment deals in lieu of direct charges, with US statements reaffirming opposition to any toll regime. The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum established a 60-day toll-free window that expired in mid-August, after which Iran signaled intent to pursue “fees for services” while the US and Gulf partners continue to reject compulsory payments. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these developments, with low implied probabilities for US collection of fees by year-end driven by the rapid policy reversal, legal objections, and preference for alternative compensation mechanisms. Ongoing US-Iran talks on strait administration and any further diplomatic or military shifts remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS charges Hormuz fees by...?
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
$964,589 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
August 31
1%
December 31
6%
$964,589 Vol.
August 31
$176,899 Vol.
1%
December 31
$100,537 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US officials have consistently opposed mandatory transit fees or tolls through the Strait of Hormuz under international maritime law, viewing the waterway as subject to free transit passage.** In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly proposed that the United States act as “guardian” of the strait and collect a 20% cargo reimbursement fee to offset naval protection costs amid renewed tensions with Iran. That idea was quickly superseded by a pivot to Gulf state trade and investment deals in lieu of direct charges, with US statements reaffirming opposition to any toll regime.
The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum established a 60-day toll-free window that expired in mid-August, after which Iran signaled intent to pursue “fees for services” while the US and Gulf partners continue to reject compulsory payments. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these developments, with low implied probabilities for US collection of fees by year-end driven by the rapid policy reversal, legal objections, and preference for alternative compensation mechanisms. Ongoing US-Iran talks on strait administration and any further diplomatic or military shifts remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$964,589End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US officials have consistently opposed mandatory transit fees or tolls through the Strait of Hormuz under international maritime law, viewing the waterway as subject to free transit passage.** In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly proposed that the United States act as “guardian” of the strait and collect a 20% cargo reimbursement fee to offset naval protection costs amid renewed tensions with Iran. That idea was quickly superseded by a pivot to Gulf state trade and investment deals in lieu of direct charges, with US statements reaffirming opposition to any toll regime.
The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum established a 60-day toll-free window that expired in mid-August, after which Iran signaled intent to pursue “fees for services” while the US and Gulf partners continue to reject compulsory payments. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these developments, with low implied probabilities for US collection of fees by year-end driven by the rapid policy reversal, legal objections, and preference for alternative compensation mechanisms. Ongoing US-Iran talks on strait administration and any further diplomatic or military shifts remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$964,589End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US officials have consistently opposed mandatory transit fees or tolls through the Strait of Hormuz under international maritime law, viewing the waterway as subject to free transit passage.** In mid-July 2026, President Trump briefly proposed that the United States act as “guardian” of the strait and collect a 20% cargo reimbursement fee to offset naval protection costs amid renewed tensions with Iran. That idea was quickly superseded by a pivot to Gulf state trade and investment deals in lieu of direct charges, with US statements reaffirming opposition to any toll regime. The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum established a 60-day toll-free window that expired in mid-August, after which Iran signaled intent to pursue “fees for services” while the US and Gulf partners continue to reject compulsory payments. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these developments, with low implied probabilities for US collection of fees by year-end driven by the rapid policy reversal, legal objections, and preference for alternative compensation mechanisms. Ongoing US-Iran talks on strait administration and any further diplomatic or military shifts remain the main variables that could alter the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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