The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with forecasts from the Bipartisan Policy Center indicating it will likely bind between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures and cash reserves are projected to extend payment capacity an additional six to nine months, placing any potential X-date after year-end 2027 in standard scenarios. Traders assign 97.4% probability to no default by then, reflecting Congress’s consistent record of raising or suspending the limit before exhaustion, the dollar’s reserve-currency advantages, and bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruption or credit rating pressure. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unprecedented negotiation breakdown or sharply accelerated borrowing that advances the timeline, though primary forecasts treat such outcomes as remote given institutional patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% chance
$16,315 Vol.
$16,315 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$16,315 Vol.
$16,315 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with forecasts from the Bipartisan Policy Center indicating it will likely bind between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures and cash reserves are projected to extend payment capacity an additional six to nine months, placing any potential X-date after year-end 2027 in standard scenarios. Traders assign 97.4% probability to no default by then, reflecting Congress’s consistent record of raising or suspending the limit before exhaustion, the dollar’s reserve-currency advantages, and bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruption or credit rating pressure. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unprecedented negotiation breakdown or sharply accelerated borrowing that advances the timeline, though primary forecasts treat such outcomes as remote given institutional patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$16,315End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with forecasts from the Bipartisan Policy Center indicating it will likely bind between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures and cash reserves are projected to extend payment capacity an additional six to nine months, placing any potential X-date after year-end 2027 in standard scenarios. Traders assign 97.4% probability to no default by then, reflecting Congress’s consistent record of raising or suspending the limit before exhaustion, the dollar’s reserve-currency advantages, and bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruption or credit rating pressure. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unprecedented negotiation breakdown or sharply accelerated borrowing that advances the timeline, though primary forecasts treat such outcomes as remote given institutional patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$16,315End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with forecasts from the Bipartisan Policy Center indicating it will likely bind between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures and cash reserves are projected to extend payment capacity an additional six to nine months, placing any potential X-date after year-end 2027 in standard scenarios. Traders assign 97.4% probability to no default by then, reflecting Congress’s consistent record of raising or suspending the limit before exhaustion, the dollar’s reserve-currency advantages, and bipartisan incentives to prevent market disruption or credit rating pressure. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unprecedented negotiation breakdown or sharply accelerated borrowing that advances the timeline, though primary forecasts treat such outcomes as remote given institutional patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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