**U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield activities—prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-critical systems tests, not full-yield detonations. The Nevada National Security Site maintains infrastructure for potential tests, and the administration has increased funding for stockpile stewardship and modernization amid the New START treaty’s February 2026 expiration. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities (single digits for 2026 deadlines) aligns with the absence of confirmed plans for explosive tests, congressional pushback, technical reliance on simulation, and diplomatic costs of breaking the long-standing norm. No scheduled events in the near term appear positioned to shift this assessment rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$794,083 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
4%
$794,083 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,347 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$75,925 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield activities—prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-critical systems tests, not full-yield detonations. The Nevada National Security Site maintains infrastructure for potential tests, and the administration has increased funding for stockpile stewardship and modernization amid the New START treaty’s February 2026 expiration. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities (single digits for 2026 deadlines) aligns with the absence of confirmed plans for explosive tests, congressional pushback, technical reliance on simulation, and diplomatic costs of breaking the long-standing norm. No scheduled events in the near term appear positioned to shift this assessment rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$794,083End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield activities—prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-critical systems tests, not full-yield detonations. The Nevada National Security Site maintains infrastructure for potential tests, and the administration has increased funding for stockpile stewardship and modernization amid the New START treaty’s February 2026 expiration. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities (single digits for 2026 deadlines) aligns with the absence of confirmed plans for explosive tests, congressional pushback, technical reliance on simulation, and diplomatic costs of breaking the long-standing norm. No scheduled events in the near term appear positioned to shift this assessment rapidly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$794,083End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains subject to a voluntary moratorium observed since 1992.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield activities—prompted immediate clarification from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials that any near-term activities would involve subcritical or non-critical systems tests, not full-yield detonations. The Nevada National Security Site maintains infrastructure for potential tests, and the administration has increased funding for stockpile stewardship and modernization amid the New START treaty’s February 2026 expiration. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities (single digits for 2026 deadlines) aligns with the absence of confirmed plans for explosive tests, congressional pushback, technical reliance on simulation, and diplomatic costs of breaking the long-standing norm. No scheduled events in the near term appear positioned to shift this assessment rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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