US policy toward Iran has centered on a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and ongoing nuclear negotiations that explicitly affirm respect for Iranian sovereignty and avoid any commitment to regime change or support for exiled opposition figures. Public statements from senior administration officials, including clarification that no effort seeks to install Reza Pahlavi in a leadership role, have reinforced direct engagement with the Islamic Republic rather than recognition of an external claimant lacking domestic governing authority or territorial control. Trader consensus at roughly 95 percent against recognition by year-end reflects this diplomatic track, limited high-level contact with Pahlavi, and absence of any formal elevation of his status. A sudden internal regime shift or abrupt executive reversal before December 31, 2026, remains the narrow set of developments that could still alter the outcome.