Recent diplomatic signals have kept the market tightly contested between a China venue and no meeting by year-end. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov stated on August 23 that Putin and Trump would likely meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen if both attend the November event, with Putin already confirmed and the U.S. sending a delegation. This prospect has elevated China to 44.5 percent. Counterbalancing that, a senior White House official announced on August 21 that there are no immediate plans for a bilateral summit after earlier speculation about Budapest was paused amid stalled Ukraine negotiations. The 51.5 percent probability on no meeting reflects uncertainty over Trump’s APEC attendance, the pace of substantive talks on the Russia-Ukraine war, and procedural hurdles such as venue sensitivities and sanctions constraints. Any confirmation of presidential participation at APEC or renewed momentum in bilateral diplomacy could quickly shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31 52%
China 45%
Russia 1.3%
Gulf country <1%
$625,542 Vol.
$625,542 Vol.
No meeting by December 31
52%
China
45%
Russia
1%
Gulf country
1%
United States
1%
Switzerland
<1%
Other
<1%
Turkey
<1%
Belarus
<1%
Finland
<1%
Other EU country
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
Japan
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
No meeting by December 31 52%
China 45%
Russia 1.3%
Gulf country <1%
$625,542 Vol.
$625,542 Vol.
No meeting by December 31
52%
China
45%
Russia
1%
Gulf country
1%
United States
1%
Switzerland
<1%
Other
<1%
Turkey
<1%
Belarus
<1%
Finland
<1%
Other EU country
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
Japan
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent diplomatic signals have kept the market tightly contested between a China venue and no meeting by year-end. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov stated on August 23 that Putin and Trump would likely meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen if both attend the November event, with Putin already confirmed and the U.S. sending a delegation. This prospect has elevated China to 44.5 percent. Counterbalancing that, a senior White House official announced on August 21 that there are no immediate plans for a bilateral summit after earlier speculation about Budapest was paused amid stalled Ukraine negotiations. The 51.5 percent probability on no meeting reflects uncertainty over Trump’s APEC attendance, the pace of substantive talks on the Russia-Ukraine war, and procedural hurdles such as venue sensitivities and sanctions constraints. Any confirmation of presidential participation at APEC or renewed momentum in bilateral diplomacy could quickly shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions