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Tech·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

icon for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Tech·Business

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$129,702 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$129,702 Vol.

Polymarket

OpenAI

$23,347 Vol.

30%

Google

$17,278 Vol.

17%

xAI

$8,984 Vol.

13%

Alibaba

$3,589 Vol.

12%

Meta

$14,909 Vol.

12%

Moonshot

$9,220 Vol.

11%

Z.ai

$2,568 Vol.

9%

ByteDance

$2,936 Vol.

8%

DeepSeek

$20,845 Vol.

7%

Baidu

$1,961 Vol.

7%

Microsoft

$5,191 Vol.

5%

Amazon

$5,156 Vol.

3%

Mistral

$10,316 Vol.

3%

Meituan

$3,401 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads frontier AI model rankings through its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 releases in June and July 2026, which top composite benchmarks, SWE-bench Verified coding scores above 95%, and reasoning indices across multiple independent leaderboards. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol family and Google's recent Gemini 3.7 Flash maintain close competitive pressure on speed, agentic tasks, and value metrics, while xAI's Grok 4.6 and models from Meta, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like Zhipu and Alibaba deliver strong showings in open-weight or specialized categories. Trader sentiment reflects this dynamic landscape, with Anthropic's edge driven by consistent post-training gains and benchmark dominance, though rapid iteration from rivals and potential year-end releases could shift positioning before December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$129,702
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads frontier AI model rankings through its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 releases in June and July 2026, which top composite benchmarks, SWE-bench Verified coding scores above 95%, and reasoning indices across multiple independent leaderboards. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol family and Google's recent Gemini 3.7 Flash maintain close competitive pressure on speed, agentic tasks, and value metrics, while xAI's Grok 4.6 and models from Meta, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like Zhipu and Alibaba deliver strong showings in open-weight or specialized categories. Trader sentiment reflects this dynamic landscape, with Anthropic's edge driven by consistent post-training gains and benchmark dominance, though rapid iteration from rivals and potential year-end releases could shift positioning before December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$129,702
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "OpenAI" at 30%, followed by "Google" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" has generated $129.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" is "OpenAI" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.