The market assigns nearly even odds to no cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting trader consensus on initial-term stability following recent Senate confirmations. Cabinet exits typically arise from policy divergences, agency-specific controversies, or external pressures, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Chris Wright priced highest among individuals due to their portfolios' visibility and prior scrutiny during nomination processes. Lower probabilities for figures such as Susie Wiles, Doug Burgum, and Pete Hegseth align with their roles and limited recent public signals of friction. Scheduled congressional oversight, budget timelines, and administration priorities remain potential catalysts that could shift positioning before the 2027 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 19.2%
Susie Wiles 6.6%
Chris Wright 5.9%
$42,179 Vol.
$42,179 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
None before 2027
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
19%
Susie Wiles
7%
Chris Wright
9%
Doug Burgum
6%
Kelly Loeffler
5%
Russell T. Vought
5%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Scott Bessent
3%
Howard Lutnick
3%
J.D. Vance
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Sean Duffy
2%
Scott Turner
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Collins
<1%
None before 2027 47.9%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 19.2%
Susie Wiles 6.6%
Chris Wright 5.9%
$42,179 Vol.
$42,179 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
None before 2027
$8,036 Vol.
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,401 Vol.
19%
Susie Wiles
$3,362 Vol.
7%
Chris Wright
$730 Vol.
9%
Doug Burgum
$799 Vol.
6%
Kelly Loeffler
$776 Vol.
5%
Russell T. Vought
$473 Vol.
5%
Pete Hegseth
$939 Vol.
4%
Scott Bessent
$1,473 Vol.
3%
Howard Lutnick
$828 Vol.
3%
J.D. Vance
$581 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$670 Vol.
2%
Sean Duffy
$632 Vol.
2%
Scott Turner
$351 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$636 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$478 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$498 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$517 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$847 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$646 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$506 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The market assigns nearly even odds to no cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting trader consensus on initial-term stability following recent Senate confirmations. Cabinet exits typically arise from policy divergences, agency-specific controversies, or external pressures, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Chris Wright priced highest among individuals due to their portfolios' visibility and prior scrutiny during nomination processes. Lower probabilities for figures such as Susie Wiles, Doug Burgum, and Pete Hegseth align with their roles and limited recent public signals of friction. Scheduled congressional oversight, budget timelines, and administration priorities remain potential catalysts that could shift positioning before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$42,179End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The market assigns nearly even odds to no cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting trader consensus on initial-term stability following recent Senate confirmations. Cabinet exits typically arise from policy divergences, agency-specific controversies, or external pressures, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Chris Wright priced highest among individuals due to their portfolios' visibility and prior scrutiny during nomination processes. Lower probabilities for figures such as Susie Wiles, Doug Burgum, and Pete Hegseth align with their roles and limited recent public signals of friction. Scheduled congressional oversight, budget timelines, and administration priorities remain potential catalysts that could shift positioning before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$42,179End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market assigns nearly even odds to no cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting trader consensus on initial-term stability following recent Senate confirmations. Cabinet exits typically arise from policy divergences, agency-specific controversies, or external pressures, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Chris Wright priced highest among individuals due to their portfolios' visibility and prior scrutiny during nomination processes. Lower probabilities for figures such as Susie Wiles, Doug Burgum, and Pete Hegseth align with their roles and limited recent public signals of friction. Scheduled congressional oversight, budget timelines, and administration priorities remain potential catalysts that could shift positioning before the 2027 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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