Tensions with Canada have drawn the most attention, as a petition exceeding 200,000 signatures urges Ottawa to declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata over annexation rhetoric and diplomatic interference claims, yet Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government shows no sign of pursuing expulsion. Similar friction in Brazil involves a U.S. visa revocation for its ambassador but stops short of any order to depart. Broader U.S. diplomatic vacancies and routine recalls of its own envoys reflect internal realignment rather than reciprocal host-country actions. Expelling an ambassador constitutes a severe escalation under the Vienna Convention, historically limited to acute crises, and recent developments indicate governments are calibrating responses to avoid that threshold through year-end. Trader pricing at 80.5% for “No” aligns with this pattern of contained disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Tensions with Canada have drawn the most attention, as a petition exceeding 200,000 signatures urges Ottawa to declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata over annexation rhetoric and diplomatic interference claims, yet Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government shows no sign of pursuing expulsion. Similar friction in Brazil involves a U.S. visa revocation for its ambassador but stops short of any order to depart. Broader U.S. diplomatic vacancies and routine recalls of its own envoys reflect internal realignment rather than reciprocal host-country actions. Expelling an ambassador constitutes a severe escalation under the Vienna Convention, historically limited to acute crises, and recent developments indicate governments are calibrating responses to avoid that threshold through year-end. Trader pricing at 80.5% for “No” aligns with this pattern of contained disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Tensions with Canada have drawn the most attention, as a petition exceeding 200,000 signatures urges Ottawa to declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata over annexation rhetoric and diplomatic interference claims, yet Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government shows no sign of pursuing expulsion. Similar friction in Brazil involves a U.S. visa revocation for its ambassador but stops short of any order to depart. Broader U.S. diplomatic vacancies and routine recalls of its own envoys reflect internal realignment rather than reciprocal host-country actions. Expelling an ambassador constitutes a severe escalation under the Vienna Convention, historically limited to acute crises, and recent developments indicate governments are calibrating responses to avoid that threshold through year-end. Trader pricing at 80.5% for “No” aligns with this pattern of contained disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions with Canada have drawn the most attention, as a petition exceeding 200,000 signatures urges Ottawa to declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata over annexation rhetoric and diplomatic interference claims, yet Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government shows no sign of pursuing expulsion. Similar friction in Brazil involves a U.S. visa revocation for its ambassador but stops short of any order to depart. Broader U.S. diplomatic vacancies and routine recalls of its own envoys reflect internal realignment rather than reciprocal host-country actions. Expelling an ambassador constitutes a severe escalation under the Vienna Convention, historically limited to acute crises, and recent developments indicate governments are calibrating responses to avoid that threshold through year-end. Trader pricing at 80.5% for “No” aligns with this pattern of contained disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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