Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal framework grounded in Sharia principles, where the constitution, Islamic Penal Code, and Guardian Council oversight explicitly define marriage as between a man and a woman while criminalizing same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution. No legislative proposals, parliamentary debates, or reformist initiatives have emerged to alter this stance, even amid recent protests or leadership transitions. The conservative dominance in the Majlis and alignment with religious authorities reinforce structural barriers that render legalization incompatible with core state institutions. Trader consensus at 98% for "No" by the December 2026 resolution date reflects these entrenched constraints. Hypothetical shifts would require unprecedented constitutional amendments or regime-level policy reversals, developments without precedent or current signals.