Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remains fixed at July 22, 2029, through December 31, 2026, primarily because revisions to its underlying remaining carbon budget occur infrequently. The clock draws from the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ (for a 67% chance of limiting warming) divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂, as tracked by the Global Carbon Project. Recent 2025–2026 observations confirm emissions continuing without abrupt acceleration or mitigation surges capable of triggering a recalculation, while record global temperatures (e.g., multiple months exceeding 1.5°C in datasets) reflect realized warming rather than immediate budget adjustments. No major IPCC assessment or updated stocktake is scheduled before late 2026, reinforcing market consensus on short-term stability despite ongoing El Niño influences and policy developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
17% chance
$10,659 Vol.
$10,659 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
17% chance
$10,659 Vol.
$10,659 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remains fixed at July 22, 2029, through December 31, 2026, primarily because revisions to its underlying remaining carbon budget occur infrequently. The clock draws from the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ (for a 67% chance of limiting warming) divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂, as tracked by the Global Carbon Project. Recent 2025–2026 observations confirm emissions continuing without abrupt acceleration or mitigation surges capable of triggering a recalculation, while record global temperatures (e.g., multiple months exceeding 1.5°C in datasets) reflect realized warming rather than immediate budget adjustments. No major IPCC assessment or updated stocktake is scheduled before late 2026, reinforcing market consensus on short-term stability despite ongoing El Niño influences and policy developments.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$10,659End Date
Dec 31, 2029Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remains fixed at July 22, 2029, through December 31, 2026, primarily because revisions to its underlying remaining carbon budget occur infrequently. The clock draws from the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ (for a 67% chance of limiting warming) divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂, as tracked by the Global Carbon Project. Recent 2025–2026 observations confirm emissions continuing without abrupt acceleration or mitigation surges capable of triggering a recalculation, while record global temperatures (e.g., multiple months exceeding 1.5°C in datasets) reflect realized warming rather than immediate budget adjustments. No major IPCC assessment or updated stocktake is scheduled before late 2026, reinforcing market consensus on short-term stability despite ongoing El Niño influences and policy developments.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$10,659End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remains fixed at July 22, 2029, through December 31, 2026, primarily because revisions to its underlying remaining carbon budget occur infrequently. The clock draws from the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ (for a 67% chance of limiting warming) divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂, as tracked by the Global Carbon Project. Recent 2025–2026 observations confirm emissions continuing without abrupt acceleration or mitigation surges capable of triggering a recalculation, while record global temperatures (e.g., multiple months exceeding 1.5°C in datasets) reflect realized warming rather than immediate budget adjustments. No major IPCC assessment or updated stocktake is scheduled before late 2026, reinforcing market consensus on short-term stability despite ongoing El Niño influences and policy developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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