The U.S. conducted a targeted special operations raid in Venezuela in January 2026 that captured Nicolás Maduro without establishing a broader occupation or sustained ground campaign. Subsequent efforts have centered on designating cartels as terrorist organizations, lethal strikes against suspected drug vessels, and negotiated joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia to target networks on their soil. Mexico has repeatedly rejected U.S. troop deployments against cartels, while administration statements on Cuba have shifted toward expanded sanctions rather than military action. These patterns, combined with the costs and diplomatic consequences of full-scale invasions, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion occurring for the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
$270,493 Vol.
$270,493 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% chance
$270,493 Vol.
$270,493 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. conducted a targeted special operations raid in Venezuela in January 2026 that captured Nicolás Maduro without establishing a broader occupation or sustained ground campaign. Subsequent efforts have centered on designating cartels as terrorist organizations, lethal strikes against suspected drug vessels, and negotiated joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia to target networks on their soil. Mexico has repeatedly rejected U.S. troop deployments against cartels, while administration statements on Cuba have shifted toward expanded sanctions rather than military action. These patterns, combined with the costs and diplomatic consequences of full-scale invasions, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion occurring for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$270,493End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. conducted a targeted special operations raid in Venezuela in January 2026 that captured Nicolás Maduro without establishing a broader occupation or sustained ground campaign. Subsequent efforts have centered on designating cartels as terrorist organizations, lethal strikes against suspected drug vessels, and negotiated joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia to target networks on their soil. Mexico has repeatedly rejected U.S. troop deployments against cartels, while administration statements on Cuba have shifted toward expanded sanctions rather than military action. These patterns, combined with the costs and diplomatic consequences of full-scale invasions, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion occurring for the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$270,493End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. conducted a targeted special operations raid in Venezuela in January 2026 that captured Nicolás Maduro without establishing a broader occupation or sustained ground campaign. Subsequent efforts have centered on designating cartels as terrorist organizations, lethal strikes against suspected drug vessels, and negotiated joint operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia to target networks on their soil. Mexico has repeatedly rejected U.S. troop deployments against cartels, while administration statements on Cuba have shifted toward expanded sanctions rather than military action. These patterns, combined with the costs and diplomatic consequences of full-scale invasions, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% probability assigned to no invasion occurring for the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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