Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, which began with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have continued through targeted military actions and retaliatory exchanges focused on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian nuclear and missile sites, without a formal congressional declaration of war. A June 17 memorandum of understanding established a 60-day negotiation window that later strained amid resumed strikes in July and August, with mediators from Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan facilitating talks on maritime routes, sanctions relief, and nuclear inspections. President Trump has issued War Powers notifications to Congress and pursued economic pressure, while Senate and House votes on limiting operations have produced mixed results. Traders weigh these patterns against historical reluctance to seek formal declarations, ongoing diplomatic channels, and risks of escalation tied to shipping disruptions or further attacks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$7,774,588 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
4%
$7,774,588 Vol.
December 31
$801,953 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, which began with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have continued through targeted military actions and retaliatory exchanges focused on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian nuclear and missile sites, without a formal congressional declaration of war. A June 17 memorandum of understanding established a 60-day negotiation window that later strained amid resumed strikes in July and August, with mediators from Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan facilitating talks on maritime routes, sanctions relief, and nuclear inspections. President Trump has issued War Powers notifications to Congress and pursued economic pressure, while Senate and House votes on limiting operations have produced mixed results. Traders weigh these patterns against historical reluctance to seek formal declarations, ongoing diplomatic channels, and risks of escalation tied to shipping disruptions or further attacks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,774,588End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, which began with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have continued through targeted military actions and retaliatory exchanges focused on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian nuclear and missile sites, without a formal congressional declaration of war. A June 17 memorandum of understanding established a 60-day negotiation window that later strained amid resumed strikes in July and August, with mediators from Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan facilitating talks on maritime routes, sanctions relief, and nuclear inspections. President Trump has issued War Powers notifications to Congress and pursued economic pressure, while Senate and House votes on limiting operations have produced mixed results. Traders weigh these patterns against historical reluctance to seek formal declarations, ongoing diplomatic channels, and risks of escalation tied to shipping disruptions or further attacks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,774,588End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, which began with airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have continued through targeted military actions and retaliatory exchanges focused on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian nuclear and missile sites, without a formal congressional declaration of war. A June 17 memorandum of understanding established a 60-day negotiation window that later strained amid resumed strikes in July and August, with mediators from Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan facilitating talks on maritime routes, sanctions relief, and nuclear inspections. President Trump has issued War Powers notifications to Congress and pursued economic pressure, while Senate and House votes on limiting operations have produced mixed results. Traders weigh these patterns against historical reluctance to seek formal declarations, ongoing diplomatic channels, and risks of escalation tied to shipping disruptions or further attacks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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