Wisconsin’s Elections Commission has publicly warned that a longstanding statute disqualifies voters who place bets or wagers on election outcomes they participate in, with potential for administrative challenges and felony referrals. Officials have stated they lack tools to monitor anonymous prediction-market activity on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, relying instead on voter challenges that require specific evidence of individual bets. No such disqualifications have occurred to date despite the July 2026 memo and earlier reminders, reflecting practical barriers to enforcement before the November 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent for “No” reflects these enforcement limits. Late-breaking public disclosures, successful challenges against known bettors, or court rulings clarifying the statute’s reach could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
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Nov 2, 2026
4% chance
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Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wisconsin’s Elections Commission has publicly warned that a longstanding statute disqualifies voters who place bets or wagers on election outcomes they participate in, with potential for administrative challenges and felony referrals. Officials have stated they lack tools to monitor anonymous prediction-market activity on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, relying instead on voter challenges that require specific evidence of individual bets. No such disqualifications have occurred to date despite the July 2026 memo and earlier reminders, reflecting practical barriers to enforcement before the November 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent for “No” reflects these enforcement limits. Late-breaking public disclosures, successful challenges against known bettors, or court rulings clarifying the statute’s reach could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$2,020End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wisconsin’s Elections Commission has publicly warned that a longstanding statute disqualifies voters who place bets or wagers on election outcomes they participate in, with potential for administrative challenges and felony referrals. Officials have stated they lack tools to monitor anonymous prediction-market activity on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, relying instead on voter challenges that require specific evidence of individual bets. No such disqualifications have occurred to date despite the July 2026 memo and earlier reminders, reflecting practical barriers to enforcement before the November 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent for “No” reflects these enforcement limits. Late-breaking public disclosures, successful challenges against known bettors, or court rulings clarifying the statute’s reach could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,020End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wisconsin’s Elections Commission has publicly warned that a longstanding statute disqualifies voters who place bets or wagers on election outcomes they participate in, with potential for administrative challenges and felony referrals. Officials have stated they lack tools to monitor anonymous prediction-market activity on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, relying instead on voter challenges that require specific evidence of individual bets. No such disqualifications have occurred to date despite the July 2026 memo and earlier reminders, reflecting practical barriers to enforcement before the November 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent for “No” reflects these enforcement limits. Late-breaking public disclosures, successful challenges against known bettors, or court rulings clarifying the statute’s reach could still alter the outcome within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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