Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democratic nominee Brad Smith and independents in Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District on November 3. The district’s R+8 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance, including Grothman’s 61% win in 2024, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Grothman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary reinforce this positioning, while race ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Smith’s narrow August 11 primary victory and limited polling visibility for challengers, including independent Mike Thurow, have not shifted the outlook materially. The November general election timeline leaves limited room for late developments to alter the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-06 House Election Winner
WI-06 House Election Winner
$30,541 Vol.
$30,541 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
11%
$30,541 Vol.
$30,541 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$16,574 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$13,967 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democratic nominee Brad Smith and independents in Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District on November 3. The district’s R+8 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance, including Grothman’s 61% win in 2024, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Grothman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary reinforce this positioning, while race ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Smith’s narrow August 11 primary victory and limited polling visibility for challengers, including independent Mike Thurow, have not shifted the outlook materially. The November general election timeline leaves limited room for late developments to alter the balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$30,541End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democratic nominee Brad Smith and independents in Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District on November 3. The district’s R+8 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance, including Grothman’s 61% win in 2024, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Grothman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary reinforce this positioning, while race ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Smith’s narrow August 11 primary victory and limited polling visibility for challengers, including independent Mike Thurow, have not shifted the outlook materially. The November general election timeline leaves limited room for late developments to alter the balance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,541End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman faces Democratic nominee Brad Smith and independents in Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District on November 3. The district’s R+8 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance, including Grothman’s 61% win in 2024, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Grothman’s substantial fundraising lead and unopposed primary reinforce this positioning, while race ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican. Smith’s narrow August 11 primary victory and limited polling visibility for challengers, including independent Mike Thurow, have not shifted the outlook materially. The November general election timeline leaves limited room for late developments to alter the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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