Ongoing martial law, extended by parliament until at least October 31, 2026, bars presidential elections under Ukrainian law, sustaining Zelenskyy in office past his 2019 term's formal expiration through constitutional provisions that allow the incumbent to continue until a successor assumes power. Recent calls by dismissed defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov for a wartime vote drew an immediate rejection from Zelenskyy, who described such an election as a risk that would divide the country amid active conflict with Russia. With only months remaining until year-end and no security guarantees or parliamentary action enabling a rapid poll, traders see negligible near-term pathways for leadership change, aligning the 91.5% "No" consensus with the structural and political barriers in place.