The near-certain 99% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stem primarily from USGS assessments that no fault long enough to generate such an event exists on Earth, as magnitude scales directly with rupture length and the planet's tectonic plates cannot store or release the required energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, with all recent seismic activity in 2026 limited to events below 8.0 and no model or observational data indicating escalation. While measurement uncertainties or an undetected global-scale fault could theoretically alter outcomes, these remain negligible given comprehensive monitoring networks and the short timeframe remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
1% chance
$811,055 Vol.
$811,055 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
1% chance
$811,055 Vol.
$811,055 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain 99% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stem primarily from USGS assessments that no fault long enough to generate such an event exists on Earth, as magnitude scales directly with rupture length and the planet's tectonic plates cannot store or release the required energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, with all recent seismic activity in 2026 limited to events below 8.0 and no model or observational data indicating escalation. While measurement uncertainties or an undetected global-scale fault could theoretically alter outcomes, these remain negligible given comprehensive monitoring networks and the short timeframe remaining.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$811,055End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain 99% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stem primarily from USGS assessments that no fault long enough to generate such an event exists on Earth, as magnitude scales directly with rupture length and the planet's tectonic plates cannot store or release the required energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, with all recent seismic activity in 2026 limited to events below 8.0 and no model or observational data indicating escalation. While measurement uncertainties or an undetected global-scale fault could theoretically alter outcomes, these remain negligible given comprehensive monitoring networks and the short timeframe remaining.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$811,055End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 99% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stem primarily from USGS assessments that no fault long enough to generate such an event exists on Earth, as magnitude scales directly with rupture length and the planet's tectonic plates cannot store or release the required energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, with all recent seismic activity in 2026 limited to events below 8.0 and no model or observational data indicating escalation. While measurement uncertainties or an undetected global-scale fault could theoretically alter outcomes, these remain negligible given comprehensive monitoring networks and the short timeframe remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions