Traders see a tightly contested race for second place on the LMSYS Arena leaderboard (style control on) by late October 2026, with Google and Meta holding the clearest edges at 26.5% and 23.5% implied probability. Recent Gemini 3.5/3.7 releases have kept Google competitive on agentic and coding benchmarks despite delays to larger context windows, while Meta benefits from rapid open-weight iteration and ecosystem scale. Anthropic leads overall but trades lower for second, reflecting strong Claude Fable/Mythos performance offset by enterprise focus and fewer headline releases lately. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 updates and shifting business adoption add volatility, yet lower odds suggest traders expect continued convergence among frontier labs. Key catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 27%
Meta 24%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 8%
$16,703 Vol.
$16,703 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
27%
Meta
24%
Anthropic
10%
OpenAI
8%
ByteDance
3%
Z.ai
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Alibaba
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 27%
Meta 24%
Anthropic 10%
OpenAI 8%
$16,703 Vol.
$16,703 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$5,116 Vol.
27%
Meta
$1,896 Vol.
24%
Anthropic
$630 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$1,013 Vol.
8%
ByteDance
$520 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$460 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$483 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$483 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$498 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$468 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$440 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$505 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$462 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$497 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$464 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$459 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$430 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$464 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$486 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$510 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$421 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for second place on the LMSYS Arena leaderboard (style control on) by late October 2026, with Google and Meta holding the clearest edges at 26.5% and 23.5% implied probability. Recent Gemini 3.5/3.7 releases have kept Google competitive on agentic and coding benchmarks despite delays to larger context windows, while Meta benefits from rapid open-weight iteration and ecosystem scale. Anthropic leads overall but trades lower for second, reflecting strong Claude Fable/Mythos performance offset by enterprise focus and fewer headline releases lately. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 updates and shifting business adoption add volatility, yet lower odds suggest traders expect continued convergence among frontier labs. Key catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$16,703End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for second place on the LMSYS Arena leaderboard (style control on) by late October 2026, with Google and Meta holding the clearest edges at 26.5% and 23.5% implied probability. Recent Gemini 3.5/3.7 releases have kept Google competitive on agentic and coding benchmarks despite delays to larger context windows, while Meta benefits from rapid open-weight iteration and ecosystem scale. Anthropic leads overall but trades lower for second, reflecting strong Claude Fable/Mythos performance offset by enterprise focus and fewer headline releases lately. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 updates and shifting business adoption add volatility, yet lower odds suggest traders expect continued convergence among frontier labs. Key catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$16,703End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for second place on the LMSYS Arena leaderboard (style control on) by late October 2026, with Google and Meta holding the clearest edges at 26.5% and 23.5% implied probability. Recent Gemini 3.5/3.7 releases have kept Google competitive on agentic and coding benchmarks despite delays to larger context windows, while Meta benefits from rapid open-weight iteration and ecosystem scale. Anthropic leads overall but trades lower for second, reflecting strong Claude Fable/Mythos performance offset by enterprise focus and fewer headline releases lately. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 updates and shifting business adoption add volatility, yet lower odds suggest traders expect continued convergence among frontier labs. Key catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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