Ongoing record warmth across global land and ocean surfaces in mid-2026, driven by persistent El Niño remnants and elevated baseline temperatures, underpins the overwhelming market consensus that one of August 1–3 set a new all-time daily global average temperature peak. NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth analyses show July 2026 tying or ranking among the hottest months on record, with 2026 on pace for one of the warmest years since 1850; early August heatwaves, including extreme readings exceeding 48°C in parts of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East, aligned with model consensus to push daily anomalies beyond the prior July 2024 benchmark. Recent observational data and reanalysis products confirm the shift. A realistic challenge would require substantial downward revisions to August early-month measurements or an unforeseen cooling event that alters the ranking before final datasets are locked.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 98.7%
2nd hottest 1.3%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
99%
2nd hottest
1%
3rd hottest
<1%
4th or lower
<1%
1st hottest 98.7%
2nd hottest 1.3%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$680 Vol.
99%
2nd hottest
$490 Vol.
1%
3rd hottest
$358 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$259 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing record warmth across global land and ocean surfaces in mid-2026, driven by persistent El Niño remnants and elevated baseline temperatures, underpins the overwhelming market consensus that one of August 1–3 set a new all-time daily global average temperature peak. NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth analyses show July 2026 tying or ranking among the hottest months on record, with 2026 on pace for one of the warmest years since 1850; early August heatwaves, including extreme readings exceeding 48°C in parts of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East, aligned with model consensus to push daily anomalies beyond the prior July 2024 benchmark. Recent observational data and reanalysis products confirm the shift. A realistic challenge would require substantial downward revisions to August early-month measurements or an unforeseen cooling event that alters the ranking before final datasets are locked.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,788End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing record warmth across global land and ocean surfaces in mid-2026, driven by persistent El Niño remnants and elevated baseline temperatures, underpins the overwhelming market consensus that one of August 1–3 set a new all-time daily global average temperature peak. NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth analyses show July 2026 tying or ranking among the hottest months on record, with 2026 on pace for one of the warmest years since 1850; early August heatwaves, including extreme readings exceeding 48°C in parts of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East, aligned with model consensus to push daily anomalies beyond the prior July 2024 benchmark. Recent observational data and reanalysis products confirm the shift. A realistic challenge would require substantial downward revisions to August early-month measurements or an unforeseen cooling event that alters the ranking before final datasets are locked.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$1,788End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing record warmth across global land and ocean surfaces in mid-2026, driven by persistent El Niño remnants and elevated baseline temperatures, underpins the overwhelming market consensus that one of August 1–3 set a new all-time daily global average temperature peak. NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth analyses show July 2026 tying or ranking among the hottest months on record, with 2026 on pace for one of the warmest years since 1850; early August heatwaves, including extreme readings exceeding 48°C in parts of Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East, aligned with model consensus to push daily anomalies beyond the prior July 2024 benchmark. Recent observational data and reanalysis products confirm the shift. A realistic challenge would require substantial downward revisions to August early-month measurements or an unforeseen cooling event that alters the ranking before final datasets are locked.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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