**No leads at 70.5% because the historical frequency of confirmed airbursts or ground impacts releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or more remains low.** Objects roughly 5–10 meters across that produce this energy scale enter Earth’s atmosphere on average every several years according to CNEOS fireball data and infrasound networks, placing the annual base rate well below 50% and often closer to 20–30%. No events meeting or exceeding this threshold occurred in 2025, and through August 2026 NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and the CTBTO infrasound array have recorded none. Ongoing cataloging of small asteroids continues to lower the chance of an undetected impactor, while typical meteor-shower activity and known close approaches have not produced detectable multi-kiloton detonations. Traders therefore price the remainder of 2026 as unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike, consistent with the observed multi-year cadence rather than any new scientific alert.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
30% chance
$312,468 Vol.
$312,468 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
30% chance
$312,468 Vol.
$312,468 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No leads at 70.5% because the historical frequency of confirmed airbursts or ground impacts releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or more remains low.** Objects roughly 5–10 meters across that produce this energy scale enter Earth’s atmosphere on average every several years according to CNEOS fireball data and infrasound networks, placing the annual base rate well below 50% and often closer to 20–30%.
No events meeting or exceeding this threshold occurred in 2025, and through August 2026 NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and the CTBTO infrasound array have recorded none. Ongoing cataloging of small asteroids continues to lower the chance of an undetected impactor, while typical meteor-shower activity and known close approaches have not produced detectable multi-kiloton detonations. Traders therefore price the remainder of 2026 as unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike, consistent with the observed multi-year cadence rather than any new scientific alert.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,468End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No leads at 70.5% because the historical frequency of confirmed airbursts or ground impacts releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or more remains low.** Objects roughly 5–10 meters across that produce this energy scale enter Earth’s atmosphere on average every several years according to CNEOS fireball data and infrasound networks, placing the annual base rate well below 50% and often closer to 20–30%.
No events meeting or exceeding this threshold occurred in 2025, and through August 2026 NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and the CTBTO infrasound array have recorded none. Ongoing cataloging of small asteroids continues to lower the chance of an undetected impactor, while typical meteor-shower activity and known close approaches have not produced detectable multi-kiloton detonations. Traders therefore price the remainder of 2026 as unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike, consistent with the observed multi-year cadence rather than any new scientific alert.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,468End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No leads at 70.5% because the historical frequency of confirmed airbursts or ground impacts releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or more remains low.** Objects roughly 5–10 meters across that produce this energy scale enter Earth’s atmosphere on average every several years according to CNEOS fireball data and infrasound networks, placing the annual base rate well below 50% and often closer to 20–30%. No events meeting or exceeding this threshold occurred in 2025, and through August 2026 NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and the CTBTO infrasound array have recorded none. Ongoing cataloging of small asteroids continues to lower the chance of an undetected impactor, while typical meteor-shower activity and known close approaches have not produced detectable multi-kiloton detonations. Traders therefore price the remainder of 2026 as unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike, consistent with the observed multi-year cadence rather than any new scientific alert.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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