Alabama’s strong Republican tilt in statewide races underpins trader consensus for a GOP victory in the open 2026 U.S. Senate contest. The seat, vacated by Tommy Tuberville’s gubernatorial bid, features Republican nominee Barry Moore, a sitting congressman who secured the nomination after winning a June runoff with President Trump’s endorsement and superior fundraising. Democrat Everett Wess, a Birmingham attorney, advanced from his party’s runoff but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential margins have exceeded 25 points. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, and limited polling shows Moore ahead by double digits. A Republican nominee has not lost a general election here in decades. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal or health event affecting Moore, an unusually potent national economic backlash against Republicans, or exceptionally low GOP turnout, though such shifts remain unlikely given Alabama’s partisan baseline and the absence of recent developments altering the fundamentals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$12,359 Vol.
$12,359 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
5%
$12,359 Vol.
$12,359 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$6,741 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$5,618 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama’s strong Republican tilt in statewide races underpins trader consensus for a GOP victory in the open 2026 U.S. Senate contest. The seat, vacated by Tommy Tuberville’s gubernatorial bid, features Republican nominee Barry Moore, a sitting congressman who secured the nomination after winning a June runoff with President Trump’s endorsement and superior fundraising. Democrat Everett Wess, a Birmingham attorney, advanced from his party’s runoff but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential margins have exceeded 25 points. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, and limited polling shows Moore ahead by double digits. A Republican nominee has not lost a general election here in decades. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal or health event affecting Moore, an unusually potent national economic backlash against Republicans, or exceptionally low GOP turnout, though such shifts remain unlikely given Alabama’s partisan baseline and the absence of recent developments altering the fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$12,359End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama’s strong Republican tilt in statewide races underpins trader consensus for a GOP victory in the open 2026 U.S. Senate contest. The seat, vacated by Tommy Tuberville’s gubernatorial bid, features Republican nominee Barry Moore, a sitting congressman who secured the nomination after winning a June runoff with President Trump’s endorsement and superior fundraising. Democrat Everett Wess, a Birmingham attorney, advanced from his party’s runoff but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential margins have exceeded 25 points. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, and limited polling shows Moore ahead by double digits. A Republican nominee has not lost a general election here in decades. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal or health event affecting Moore, an unusually potent national economic backlash against Republicans, or exceptionally low GOP turnout, though such shifts remain unlikely given Alabama’s partisan baseline and the absence of recent developments altering the fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alabama U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$12,359End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama’s strong Republican tilt in statewide races underpins trader consensus for a GOP victory in the open 2026 U.S. Senate contest. The seat, vacated by Tommy Tuberville’s gubernatorial bid, features Republican nominee Barry Moore, a sitting congressman who secured the nomination after winning a June runoff with President Trump’s endorsement and superior fundraising. Democrat Everett Wess, a Birmingham attorney, advanced from his party’s runoff but faces structural headwinds in a state where recent presidential margins have exceeded 25 points. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, and limited polling shows Moore ahead by double digits. A Republican nominee has not lost a general election here in decades. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal or health event affecting Moore, an unusually potent national economic backlash against Republicans, or exceptionally low GOP turnout, though such shifts remain unlikely given Alabama’s partisan baseline and the absence of recent developments altering the fundamentals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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