Recent observational data from agencies like Copernicus, Berkeley Earth, and NOAA confirm sustained global surface temperatures well above 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline through mid-2026, driven by the long-term anthropogenic trend plus a rapidly strengthening El Niño with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies forecast to reach ~2.9°C by late summer. July 2026 ranked as joint-second warmest on record, and daily August readings have already set new highs for the date, reinforcing trader consensus that the August monthly anomaly will exceed 1.29°C. Model ensembles show high confidence in widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Only an abrupt, unprecedented cooling event or major downward revision in final datasets could realistically shift the outcome below this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,120 Vol.
$14,120 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,120 Vol.
$14,120 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,083 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,759 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,281 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies like Copernicus, Berkeley Earth, and NOAA confirm sustained global surface temperatures well above 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline through mid-2026, driven by the long-term anthropogenic trend plus a rapidly strengthening El Niño with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies forecast to reach ~2.9°C by late summer. July 2026 ranked as joint-second warmest on record, and daily August readings have already set new highs for the date, reinforcing trader consensus that the August monthly anomaly will exceed 1.29°C. Model ensembles show high confidence in widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Only an abrupt, unprecedented cooling event or major downward revision in final datasets could realistically shift the outcome below this threshold.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,120End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies like Copernicus, Berkeley Earth, and NOAA confirm sustained global surface temperatures well above 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline through mid-2026, driven by the long-term anthropogenic trend plus a rapidly strengthening El Niño with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies forecast to reach ~2.9°C by late summer. July 2026 ranked as joint-second warmest on record, and daily August readings have already set new highs for the date, reinforcing trader consensus that the August monthly anomaly will exceed 1.29°C. Model ensembles show high confidence in widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Only an abrupt, unprecedented cooling event or major downward revision in final datasets could realistically shift the outcome below this threshold.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,120End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies like Copernicus, Berkeley Earth, and NOAA confirm sustained global surface temperatures well above 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline through mid-2026, driven by the long-term anthropogenic trend plus a rapidly strengthening El Niño with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies forecast to reach ~2.9°C by late summer. July 2026 ranked as joint-second warmest on record, and daily August readings have already set new highs for the date, reinforcing trader consensus that the August monthly anomaly will exceed 1.29°C. Model ensembles show high confidence in widespread above-normal land and ocean temperatures through the season. Only an abrupt, unprecedented cooling event or major downward revision in final datasets could realistically shift the outcome below this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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