A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.7°C in mid-August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.42–1.45°C bin. Official outlooks from NOAA and the WMO highlight enhanced probabilities of above-normal global surface temperatures through the northern summer and fall, amplified by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and persistently warm tropical Atlantic waters. These oceanic conditions add to long-term greenhouse forcing, supporting elevated monthly anomalies relative to pre-industrial baselines, though model spread and potential short-term variability in atmospheric responses introduce uncertainty that narrows the gap with the adjacent 1.38–1.41°C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.42–1.45ºC 38%
1.38–1.41ºC 35%
>1.45ºC 10%
1.34–1.37ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
3%
1.30–1.33ºC
6%
1.34–1.37ºC
8%
1.38–1.41ºC
35%
1.42–1.45ºC
42%
>1.45ºC
17%
1.42–1.45ºC 38%
1.38–1.41ºC 35%
>1.45ºC 10%
1.34–1.37ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$51 Vol.
3%
1.30–1.33ºC
$605 Vol.
6%
1.34–1.37ºC
$1,353 Vol.
8%
1.38–1.41ºC
$155 Vol.
35%
1.42–1.45ºC
$633 Vol.
42%
>1.45ºC
$236 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.7°C in mid-August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.42–1.45°C bin. Official outlooks from NOAA and the WMO highlight enhanced probabilities of above-normal global surface temperatures through the northern summer and fall, amplified by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and persistently warm tropical Atlantic waters. These oceanic conditions add to long-term greenhouse forcing, supporting elevated monthly anomalies relative to pre-industrial baselines, though model spread and potential short-term variability in atmospheric responses introduce uncertainty that narrows the gap with the adjacent 1.38–1.41°C outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,032End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.7°C in mid-August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.42–1.45°C bin. Official outlooks from NOAA and the WMO highlight enhanced probabilities of above-normal global surface temperatures through the northern summer and fall, amplified by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and persistently warm tropical Atlantic waters. These oceanic conditions add to long-term greenhouse forcing, supporting elevated monthly anomalies relative to pre-industrial baselines, though model spread and potential short-term variability in atmospheric responses introduce uncertainty that narrows the gap with the adjacent 1.38–1.41°C outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$3,032End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.7°C in mid-August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.42–1.45°C bin. Official outlooks from NOAA and the WMO highlight enhanced probabilities of above-normal global surface temperatures through the northern summer and fall, amplified by a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and persistently warm tropical Atlantic waters. These oceanic conditions add to long-term greenhouse forcing, supporting elevated monthly anomalies relative to pre-industrial baselines, though model spread and potential short-term variability in atmospheric responses introduce uncertainty that narrows the gap with the adjacent 1.38–1.41°C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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