**Morocco’s scheduled parliamentary elections on September 23, 2026, are the dominant driver of the 93% Yes odds.** Under the constitution, the King appoints the Prime Minister after the vote, typically from the leading party or coalition. Aziz Akhannouch, who has held the post since October 2021, stepped down as RNI party leader in February 2026 and was succeeded by Mohamed Chaouki; he has signaled he is not pursuing another term in that role. Low public trust in the government, reflected in recent surveys and protests over economic conditions, service delivery, and perceived conflicts of interest, has further weakened expectations that his coalition will retain power or that he would be reappointed even in a favorable outcome. The short window between the September vote and the December 31, 2026 resolution date leaves little room for him to remain in office if a new majority emerges. Traders’ consensus therefore treats a change in premiership as the near-certain result of the electoral cycle and Akhannouch’s reduced party role, consistent with Morocco’s post-election government formation process.