Canada's population Up or Down this year?

12% chance

NEW

Apr 29, 2027

12% chance

NEW

Apr 29, 2027

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

85%

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Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is a daily prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the daily window specified in the title. The current market probability is 89% for "Down." A price of 89% means the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the daily window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Canada's population Up or Down this year?," decide whether you believe Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on April 29 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on January 27. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise day-over-day, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

The current probability for "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" is 89% for "Down," meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 89% chance that Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish down over this daily window. These odds update in real-time as traders react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price data. Over a full day, odds reflect evolving sentiment as the day's price action unfolds. Check back frequently or trade now before the window closes.

The "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" market resolves based on a comparison of Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price at noon ET on April 29 versus noon ET on January 27, using Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. If the April 29 noon price is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" page shows real-time Up/Down probabilities reflecting trader sentiment on whether Canada's population Up or Down this year? will be higher or lower at noon ET tomorrow versus today. Use the date navigation features at the top of the page to browse past and upcoming daily windows. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. “Canada's population Up or Down this year?” is still building its trading base for this window, so the current Up/Down probabilities may reflect only a small number of trades. As more participants enter before the window closes, the odds will become increasingly robust. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s overall prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Canada's population Up or Down this year?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page — or navigate to the current active daily window using the navigation bar at the top of the page — select "Buy Up" or "Buy Down," enter your amount, and click "Trade." If the window shown in the title has already closed, use the navigation bar to find the current live window. If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 89¢ for "Down" in the "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 89% chance that Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price will finish down over this daily window. If you buy "Down" shares at 89¢ and Canada's population Up or Down this year? finishes in that direction, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 11¢ per share. If Canada's population Up or Down this year? moves the other way, those shares are worth $0. Prices can shift throughout the day as Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price action unfolds toward the noon ET close.

The "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" market is live and resolves at Noon ET April 29 — approximately about 1 day from now. Trading is open. The Up/Down odds will continue shifting in real time as Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s price moves and traders react. Once the window closes, the market resolves based on whether Canada's population Up or Down this year?'s Binance price at noon ET on April 29 is higher or lower than at noon ET on January 27.

The "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" market has 2 comments where traders share their analysis and react to live Canada's population Up or Down this year? price movements. Scroll down to the comments section to read what other participants think. You can also check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades on this window.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture — including daily Canada's population Up or Down this year? direction markets like "Canada's population Up or Down this year?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Order Book

Order Book

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (2)

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Frequently Asked Questions

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