**China's 2026 GDP growth is tracking toward the 4.0–5.0% range, consistent with the government's official target and the broad consensus among forecasters.** Official data showed 4.7% expansion in the first half, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid soft domestic demand, weak consumption, and ongoing property sector adjustment. July indicators pointed to further moderation near 4%, driven by demand weakness, prompting expectations of additional fiscal support and monetary easing. Institutions including the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), and others project full-year outcomes clustered around 4.4–4.7%, supported by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing but offset by subdued internal activity. Recent policy signals emphasize incremental stimulus to sustain momentum within the target band, aligning trader pricing with observed economic trends and institutional outlooks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 8.2%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$881,116 Vol.
$881,116 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
8%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 8.2%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$881,116 Vol.
$881,116 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,220 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$220,362 Vol.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$80,588 Vol.
8%
6.0-7.0%
$83,563 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$116,070 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**China's 2026 GDP growth is tracking toward the 4.0–5.0% range, consistent with the government's official target and the broad consensus among forecasters.** Official data showed 4.7% expansion in the first half, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid soft domestic demand, weak consumption, and ongoing property sector adjustment. July indicators pointed to further moderation near 4%, driven by demand weakness, prompting expectations of additional fiscal support and monetary easing. Institutions including the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), and others project full-year outcomes clustered around 4.4–4.7%, supported by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing but offset by subdued internal activity. Recent policy signals emphasize incremental stimulus to sustain momentum within the target band, aligning trader pricing with observed economic trends and institutional outlooks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$881,116End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**China's 2026 GDP growth is tracking toward the 4.0–5.0% range, consistent with the government's official target and the broad consensus among forecasters.** Official data showed 4.7% expansion in the first half, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid soft domestic demand, weak consumption, and ongoing property sector adjustment. July indicators pointed to further moderation near 4%, driven by demand weakness, prompting expectations of additional fiscal support and monetary easing. Institutions including the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), and others project full-year outcomes clustered around 4.4–4.7%, supported by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing but offset by subdued internal activity. Recent policy signals emphasize incremental stimulus to sustain momentum within the target band, aligning trader pricing with observed economic trends and institutional outlooks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$881,116End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**China's 2026 GDP growth is tracking toward the 4.0–5.0% range, consistent with the government's official target and the broad consensus among forecasters.** Official data showed 4.7% expansion in the first half, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid soft domestic demand, weak consumption, and ongoing property sector adjustment. July indicators pointed to further moderation near 4%, driven by demand weakness, prompting expectations of additional fiscal support and monetary easing. Institutions including the IMF (4.6%), World Bank (4.4%), and others project full-year outcomes clustered around 4.4–4.7%, supported by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing but offset by subdued internal activity. Recent policy signals emphasize incremental stimulus to sustain momentum within the target band, aligning trader pricing with observed economic trends and institutional outlooks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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