China's official 4.5–5.0% annual growth target for 2026, combined with consensus economist forecasts clustering between 4.5% and 4.8%, anchors trader expectations firmly in the 4.0–5.0% bracket. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q1 at 5.0% easing to 4.3% in Q2 amid softer investment, sluggish consumption, and property-sector weakness, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing momentum. External projections from bodies such as the OECD and Goldman Sachs remain aligned with the target range despite the Q2 moderation and external uncertainties. Limited scope for aggressive monetary easing and anticipated fiscal adjustments further support the view that full-year results will stay within the leading outcome, with only modest probability assigned to upside or downside deviations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 88%
5.0–6.0% 8.2%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$881,796 Vol.
$881,796 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
88%
5.0–6.0%
8%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 88%
5.0–6.0% 8.2%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$881,796 Vol.
$881,796 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,220 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$221,032 Vol.
88%
5.0–6.0%
$80,598 Vol.
8%
6.0-7.0%
$83,563 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$116,070 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 4.5–5.0% annual growth target for 2026, combined with consensus economist forecasts clustering between 4.5% and 4.8%, anchors trader expectations firmly in the 4.0–5.0% bracket. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q1 at 5.0% easing to 4.3% in Q2 amid softer investment, sluggish consumption, and property-sector weakness, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing momentum. External projections from bodies such as the OECD and Goldman Sachs remain aligned with the target range despite the Q2 moderation and external uncertainties. Limited scope for aggressive monetary easing and anticipated fiscal adjustments further support the view that full-year results will stay within the leading outcome, with only modest probability assigned to upside or downside deviations.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$881,796End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 4.5–5.0% annual growth target for 2026, combined with consensus economist forecasts clustering between 4.5% and 4.8%, anchors trader expectations firmly in the 4.0–5.0% bracket. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q1 at 5.0% easing to 4.3% in Q2 amid softer investment, sluggish consumption, and property-sector weakness, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing momentum. External projections from bodies such as the OECD and Goldman Sachs remain aligned with the target range despite the Q2 moderation and external uncertainties. Limited scope for aggressive monetary easing and anticipated fiscal adjustments further support the view that full-year results will stay within the leading outcome, with only modest probability assigned to upside or downside deviations.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$881,796End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 4.5–5.0% annual growth target for 2026, combined with consensus economist forecasts clustering between 4.5% and 4.8%, anchors trader expectations firmly in the 4.0–5.0% bracket. First-half data showed 4.7% expansion, with Q1 at 5.0% easing to 4.3% in Q2 amid softer investment, sluggish consumption, and property-sector weakness, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing momentum. External projections from bodies such as the OECD and Goldman Sachs remain aligned with the target range despite the Q2 moderation and external uncertainties. Limited scope for aggressive monetary easing and anticipated fiscal adjustments further support the view that full-year results will stay within the leading outcome, with only modest probability assigned to upside or downside deviations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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