Recent volatility in Elon Musk’s X activity shapes trader sentiment for the August 28–September 4 window, with resolved markets showing sharp swings between low-volume stretches (40-64 tweets) and surge weeks (320-339). The tightly bunched probabilities around the 180-260 range reflect uncertainty over whether baseline weekday pacing (roughly 30-50 posts daily) will dominate or yield to political commentary, company updates from Tesla or SpaceX, or reply chains that inflate totals. Recent cooldown trends and lighter three-day periods support the leading bins, yet the absence of confirmed catalysts like major launches or controversies leaves room for weekend slowdowns or sudden spikes to shift outcomes. Traders weigh historical variance against the lack of scheduled flashpoints in early September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200-219 16%
220-239 16%
180-199 14%
240-259 13%
$63,773 Vol.
$63,773 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
7%
160-179
11%
180-199
14%
200-219
16%
220-239
16%
240-259
13%
260-279
10%
280-299
7%
300-319
3%
320-339
2%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 16%
220-239 16%
180-199 14%
240-259 13%
$63,773 Vol.
$63,773 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
7%
160-179
11%
180-199
14%
200-219
16%
220-239
16%
240-259
13%
260-279
10%
280-299
7%
300-319
3%
320-339
2%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent volatility in Elon Musk’s X activity shapes trader sentiment for the August 28–September 4 window, with resolved markets showing sharp swings between low-volume stretches (40-64 tweets) and surge weeks (320-339). The tightly bunched probabilities around the 180-260 range reflect uncertainty over whether baseline weekday pacing (roughly 30-50 posts daily) will dominate or yield to political commentary, company updates from Tesla or SpaceX, or reply chains that inflate totals. Recent cooldown trends and lighter three-day periods support the leading bins, yet the absence of confirmed catalysts like major launches or controversies leaves room for weekend slowdowns or sudden spikes to shift outcomes. Traders weigh historical variance against the lack of scheduled flashpoints in early September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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