Jean Smart’s commanding 93% market-implied odds for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series reflect her unmatched four prior wins for Deborah Vance across Hacks’ eligible seasons, capped by the show’s record-setting 24 nominations in its final season. Industry consensus highlights the series’ consistent critical acclaim, Smart’s standout finale submission, and voters’ tendency to honor departing favorites with clean sweeps. While Lisa Kudrow’s legacy return in The Comeback and strong turns from Quinta Brunson, Elle Fanning, and Ayo Edebiri generate some discussion, none have produced meaningful momentum shifts. An upset would require unusual voter fatigue with Hacks or a late surge in guild or precursor support for another nominee ahead of final voting and the September 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series
Jean Smart – “Hacks” 93.3%
Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback” 3.1%
Elle Fanning – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” 2.1%
Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary” <1%
$25,853 Vol.
$25,853 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
Jean Smart – “Hacks”
93%
Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback”
3%
Elle Fanning – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
2%
Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary”
<1%
Ayo Edebiri – “The Bear”
<1%
Jean Smart – “Hacks” 93.3%
Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback” 3.1%
Elle Fanning – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” 2.1%
Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary” <1%
$25,853 Vol.
$25,853 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
Jean Smart – “Hacks”
$19,445 Vol.
93%
Lisa Kudrow – “The Comeback”
$1,868 Vol.
3%
Elle Fanning – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles”
$2,089 Vol.
2%
Quinta Brunson – “Abbott Elementary”
$1,187 Vol.
<1%
Ayo Edebiri – “The Bear”
$1,264 Vol.
<1%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jean Smart’s commanding 93% market-implied odds for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series reflect her unmatched four prior wins for Deborah Vance across Hacks’ eligible seasons, capped by the show’s record-setting 24 nominations in its final season. Industry consensus highlights the series’ consistent critical acclaim, Smart’s standout finale submission, and voters’ tendency to honor departing favorites with clean sweeps. While Lisa Kudrow’s legacy return in The Comeback and strong turns from Quinta Brunson, Elle Fanning, and Ayo Edebiri generate some discussion, none have produced meaningful momentum shifts. An upset would require unusual voter fatigue with Hacks or a late surge in guild or precursor support for another nominee ahead of final voting and the September 14 ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$25,853End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jean Smart’s commanding 93% market-implied odds for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series reflect her unmatched four prior wins for Deborah Vance across Hacks’ eligible seasons, capped by the show’s record-setting 24 nominations in its final season. Industry consensus highlights the series’ consistent critical acclaim, Smart’s standout finale submission, and voters’ tendency to honor departing favorites with clean sweeps. While Lisa Kudrow’s legacy return in The Comeback and strong turns from Quinta Brunson, Elle Fanning, and Ayo Edebiri generate some discussion, none have produced meaningful momentum shifts. An upset would require unusual voter fatigue with Hacks or a late surge in guild or precursor support for another nominee ahead of final voting and the September 14 ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,853End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jean Smart’s commanding 93% market-implied odds for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series reflect her unmatched four prior wins for Deborah Vance across Hacks’ eligible seasons, capped by the show’s record-setting 24 nominations in its final season. Industry consensus highlights the series’ consistent critical acclaim, Smart’s standout finale submission, and voters’ tendency to honor departing favorites with clean sweeps. While Lisa Kudrow’s legacy return in The Comeback and strong turns from Quinta Brunson, Elle Fanning, and Ayo Edebiri generate some discussion, none have produced meaningful momentum shifts. An upset would require unusual voter fatigue with Hacks or a late surge in guild or precursor support for another nominee ahead of final voting and the September 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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