The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads trader sentiment at 75% implied probability, driven by its status as the final season of a long-running series that earned a record nine Emmy nominations, including in the newly merged Outstanding Variety Series category. The Television Academy’s shift to an area-award format—where voters issue independent yes/no judgments on whether each nominee merits recognition—has amplified sympathy for Colbert following the show’s May cancellation, reinforced by CBS’s aggressive FYC campaign and peer support from fellow late-night hosts. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Daily Show trail at single-digit odds, reflecting their solid but less resonant narratives amid final-round voting that concluded August 26 ahead of the September 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 75%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 6.3%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 4.9%
“Saturday Night Live” 3.8%
$88,169 Vol.
$88,169 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
75%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
6%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
5%
“Saturday Night Live”
10%
“The Daily Show”
4%
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 75%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 6.3%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 4.9%
“Saturday Night Live” 3.8%
$88,169 Vol.
$88,169 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
$30,465 Vol.
75%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
$16,704 Vol.
6%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
$20,894 Vol.
5%
“Saturday Night Live”
$9,886 Vol.
10%
“The Daily Show”
$10,220 Vol.
4%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads trader sentiment at 75% implied probability, driven by its status as the final season of a long-running series that earned a record nine Emmy nominations, including in the newly merged Outstanding Variety Series category. The Television Academy’s shift to an area-award format—where voters issue independent yes/no judgments on whether each nominee merits recognition—has amplified sympathy for Colbert following the show’s May cancellation, reinforced by CBS’s aggressive FYC campaign and peer support from fellow late-night hosts. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Daily Show trail at single-digit odds, reflecting their solid but less resonant narratives amid final-round voting that concluded August 26 ahead of the September 14 ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
Volume
$88,169End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads trader sentiment at 75% implied probability, driven by its status as the final season of a long-running series that earned a record nine Emmy nominations, including in the newly merged Outstanding Variety Series category. The Television Academy’s shift to an area-award format—where voters issue independent yes/no judgments on whether each nominee merits recognition—has amplified sympathy for Colbert following the show’s May cancellation, reinforced by CBS’s aggressive FYC campaign and peer support from fellow late-night hosts. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Daily Show trail at single-digit odds, reflecting their solid but less resonant narratives amid final-round voting that concluded August 26 ahead of the September 14 ceremony.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$88,169End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Late Show with Stephen Colbert leads trader sentiment at 75% implied probability, driven by its status as the final season of a long-running series that earned a record nine Emmy nominations, including in the newly merged Outstanding Variety Series category. The Television Academy’s shift to an area-award format—where voters issue independent yes/no judgments on whether each nominee merits recognition—has amplified sympathy for Colbert following the show’s May cancellation, reinforced by CBS’s aggressive FYC campaign and peer support from fellow late-night hosts. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and The Daily Show trail at single-digit odds, reflecting their solid but less resonant narratives amid final-round voting that concluded August 26 ahead of the September 14 ceremony.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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