**US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses, cruise missile storage, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb but left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** The island, seized by Iran in 1971 and long claimed by the UAE as part of Ras al-Khaimah, remains under Tehran’s authority as of late August 2026 amid broader US-Iran escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes. Diplomatic pressure from the UAE and GCC, including calls for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, continues without producing any transfer of sovereignty or occupation. Iranian officials have reaffirmed territorial claims through official registration of deeds and public statements. With the market resolution window closing August 31, 2026, trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to any near-term change in primary governmental or military control, consistent with historical precedent of sustained Iranian presence despite periodic diplomatic and limited military challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$52,967 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$52,967 Vol.
August 31
$30,459 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses, cruise missile storage, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb but left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** The island, seized by Iran in 1971 and long claimed by the UAE as part of Ras al-Khaimah, remains under Tehran’s authority as of late August 2026 amid broader US-Iran escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes. Diplomatic pressure from the UAE and GCC, including calls for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, continues without producing any transfer of sovereignty or occupation. Iranian officials have reaffirmed territorial claims through official registration of deeds and public statements. With the market resolution window closing August 31, 2026, trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to any near-term change in primary governmental or military control, consistent with historical precedent of sustained Iranian presence despite periodic diplomatic and limited military challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$52,967End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses, cruise missile storage, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb but left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** The island, seized by Iran in 1971 and long claimed by the UAE as part of Ras al-Khaimah, remains under Tehran’s authority as of late August 2026 amid broader US-Iran escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes. Diplomatic pressure from the UAE and GCC, including calls for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, continues without producing any transfer of sovereignty or occupation. Iranian officials have reaffirmed territorial claims through official registration of deeds and public statements. With the market resolution window closing August 31, 2026, trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to any near-term change in primary governmental or military control, consistent with historical precedent of sustained Iranian presence despite periodic diplomatic and limited military challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,967End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian coastal defenses, cruise missile storage, and related infrastructure on Greater Tunb but left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** The island, seized by Iran in 1971 and long claimed by the UAE as part of Ras al-Khaimah, remains under Tehran’s authority as of late August 2026 amid broader US-Iran escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes. Diplomatic pressure from the UAE and GCC, including calls for bilateral talks or ICJ referral, continues without producing any transfer of sovereignty or occupation. Iranian officials have reaffirmed territorial claims through official registration of deeds and public statements. With the market resolution window closing August 31, 2026, trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to any near-term change in primary governmental or military control, consistent with historical precedent of sustained Iranian presence despite periodic diplomatic and limited military challenges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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