Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a strategic outpost in the Strait of Hormuz used for monitoring maritime traffic, amid ongoing US-Iran military exchanges and diplomatic friction over waterway access. US strikes since February 2026 have targeted nearby Iranian islands and coastal radar or missile sites in response to Iranian drone and vessel actions, yet these operations have focused on disrupting enforcement of transit rules and fees rather than territorial occupation. Iran has responded with seizures, assertions of sole control, and naval reorganizations while pursuing agreements with Oman on routes; alternative southern corridors have gained use, reducing Iranian leverage without shifting island ownership. No verified developments indicate imminent loss of control, and any resolution would require major escalation such as sustained amphibious operations or negotiated concessions, both of which remain low-probability scenarios in the current environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$62,834 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$62,834 Vol.
August 31
$51,097 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a strategic outpost in the Strait of Hormuz used for monitoring maritime traffic, amid ongoing US-Iran military exchanges and diplomatic friction over waterway access. US strikes since February 2026 have targeted nearby Iranian islands and coastal radar or missile sites in response to Iranian drone and vessel actions, yet these operations have focused on disrupting enforcement of transit rules and fees rather than territorial occupation. Iran has responded with seizures, assertions of sole control, and naval reorganizations while pursuing agreements with Oman on routes; alternative southern corridors have gained use, reducing Iranian leverage without shifting island ownership. No verified developments indicate imminent loss of control, and any resolution would require major escalation such as sustained amphibious operations or negotiated concessions, both of which remain low-probability scenarios in the current environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$62,834End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a strategic outpost in the Strait of Hormuz used for monitoring maritime traffic, amid ongoing US-Iran military exchanges and diplomatic friction over waterway access. US strikes since February 2026 have targeted nearby Iranian islands and coastal radar or missile sites in response to Iranian drone and vessel actions, yet these operations have focused on disrupting enforcement of transit rules and fees rather than territorial occupation. Iran has responded with seizures, assertions of sole control, and naval reorganizations while pursuing agreements with Oman on routes; alternative southern corridors have gained use, reducing Iranian leverage without shifting island ownership. No verified developments indicate imminent loss of control, and any resolution would require major escalation such as sustained amphibious operations or negotiated concessions, both of which remain low-probability scenarios in the current environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,834End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a strategic outpost in the Strait of Hormuz used for monitoring maritime traffic, amid ongoing US-Iran military exchanges and diplomatic friction over waterway access. US strikes since February 2026 have targeted nearby Iranian islands and coastal radar or missile sites in response to Iranian drone and vessel actions, yet these operations have focused on disrupting enforcement of transit rules and fees rather than territorial occupation. Iran has responded with seizures, assertions of sole control, and naval reorganizations while pursuing agreements with Oman on routes; alternative southern corridors have gained use, reducing Iranian leverage without shifting island ownership. No verified developments indicate imminent loss of control, and any resolution would require major escalation such as sustained amphibious operations or negotiated concessions, both of which remain low-probability scenarios in the current environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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