**No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through late August**, driving the market's strong 63% implied probability for zero such events. Large eruptions (VEI 4+) require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights typically exceeding 10–25 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, events that occur only a handful of times per decade on average per Global Volcanism Program records. Ongoing activity remains lower-intensity, including frequent smaller ash emissions at Indonesian volcanoes like Ibu and Semeru, episodic fountaining at Kīlauea, and a possible deep submarine event near Papua New Guinea whose classification remains uncertain. With four months left and no major unrest signals at high-risk systems, traders price in the statistical likelihood of continued quiet, though a single unexpected stratovolcano escalation could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 63%
1 26%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,195 Vol.
$1,156,195 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
0
63%
1
26%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 63%
1 26%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,195 Vol.
$1,156,195 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
0
$499,087 Vol.
63%
1
$273,952 Vol.
26%
2
$40,936 Vol.
4%
3
$31,686 Vol.
1%
4
$35,007 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,527 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through late August**, driving the market's strong 63% implied probability for zero such events. Large eruptions (VEI 4+) require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights typically exceeding 10–25 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, events that occur only a handful of times per decade on average per Global Volcanism Program records. Ongoing activity remains lower-intensity, including frequent smaller ash emissions at Indonesian volcanoes like Ibu and Semeru, episodic fountaining at Kīlauea, and a possible deep submarine event near Papua New Guinea whose classification remains uncertain. With four months left and no major unrest signals at high-risk systems, traders price in the statistical likelihood of continued quiet, though a single unexpected stratovolcano escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,156,195End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through late August**, driving the market's strong 63% implied probability for zero such events. Large eruptions (VEI 4+) require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights typically exceeding 10–25 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, events that occur only a handful of times per decade on average per Global Volcanism Program records. Ongoing activity remains lower-intensity, including frequent smaller ash emissions at Indonesian volcanoes like Ibu and Semeru, episodic fountaining at Kīlauea, and a possible deep submarine event near Papua New Guinea whose classification remains uncertain. With four months left and no major unrest signals at high-risk systems, traders price in the statistical likelihood of continued quiet, though a single unexpected stratovolcano escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,156,195End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**No VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through late August**, driving the market's strong 63% implied probability for zero such events. Large eruptions (VEI 4+) require at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights typically exceeding 10–25 km on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, events that occur only a handful of times per decade on average per Global Volcanism Program records. Ongoing activity remains lower-intensity, including frequent smaller ash emissions at Indonesian volcanoes like Ibu and Semeru, episodic fountaining at Kīlauea, and a possible deep submarine event near Papua New Guinea whose classification remains uncertain. With four months left and no major unrest signals at high-risk systems, traders price in the statistical likelihood of continued quiet, though a single unexpected stratovolcano escalation could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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