Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits reflects stabilization at reduced volumes following the Houthis’ July 2026 maritime blockade of Saudi-linked vessels amid U.S.-Iran tensions. This has produced a roughly 15–24% drop from pre-blockade peaks near 350 weekly transits, with recent data showing 266 passages for late July to early August and daily averages of 30–40 vessels. The leading 220+ bucket at 35% implied probability aligns with this range holding steady, while the 160–179 outcome at 20% captures downside risks from selective tanker avoidance and dark transits. Ongoing but contained Houthi enforcement, without full resumption of broad attacks, supports the market-implied distribution around 200–270 total passages for the August 24–30 period. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Red Sea incidents or shifts in mainstream tanker routing that could widen the gap between observable and actual traffic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
220+ 35%
160-179 20%
200-219 19%
180-199 13%
$13,160 Vol.
$13,160 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
13%
160-179
20%
180-199
13%
200-219
19%
220+
35%
220+ 35%
160-179 20%
200-219 19%
180-199 13%
$13,160 Vol.
$13,160 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$0 Vol.
13%
160-179
$50 Vol.
20%
180-199
$30 Vol.
13%
200-219
$12,947 Vol.
19%
220+
$133 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits reflects stabilization at reduced volumes following the Houthis’ July 2026 maritime blockade of Saudi-linked vessels amid U.S.-Iran tensions. This has produced a roughly 15–24% drop from pre-blockade peaks near 350 weekly transits, with recent data showing 266 passages for late July to early August and daily averages of 30–40 vessels. The leading 220+ bucket at 35% implied probability aligns with this range holding steady, while the 160–179 outcome at 20% captures downside risks from selective tanker avoidance and dark transits. Ongoing but contained Houthi enforcement, without full resumption of broad attacks, supports the market-implied distribution around 200–270 total passages for the August 24–30 period. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Red Sea incidents or shifts in mainstream tanker routing that could widen the gap between observable and actual traffic.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$13,160End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits reflects stabilization at reduced volumes following the Houthis’ July 2026 maritime blockade of Saudi-linked vessels amid U.S.-Iran tensions. This has produced a roughly 15–24% drop from pre-blockade peaks near 350 weekly transits, with recent data showing 266 passages for late July to early August and daily averages of 30–40 vessels. The leading 220+ bucket at 35% implied probability aligns with this range holding steady, while the 160–179 outcome at 20% captures downside risks from selective tanker avoidance and dark transits. Ongoing but contained Houthi enforcement, without full resumption of broad attacks, supports the market-implied distribution around 200–270 total passages for the August 24–30 period. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Red Sea incidents or shifts in mainstream tanker routing that could widen the gap between observable and actual traffic.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$13,160End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits reflects stabilization at reduced volumes following the Houthis’ July 2026 maritime blockade of Saudi-linked vessels amid U.S.-Iran tensions. This has produced a roughly 15–24% drop from pre-blockade peaks near 350 weekly transits, with recent data showing 266 passages for late July to early August and daily averages of 30–40 vessels. The leading 220+ bucket at 35% implied probability aligns with this range holding steady, while the 160–179 outcome at 20% captures downside risks from selective tanker avoidance and dark transits. Ongoing but contained Houthi enforcement, without full resumption of broad attacks, supports the market-implied distribution around 200–270 total passages for the August 24–30 period. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in Red Sea incidents or shifts in mainstream tanker routing that could widen the gap between observable and actual traffic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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