**Ongoing Houthi attacks and elevated war-risk premiums continue to constrain traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical Red Sea chokepoint linking Asia-Europe routes via the Suez Canal.** A ballistic missile strike on the container ship Tihamah on August 11–12 killed six people—the first commercial shipping fatalities in the corridor in over a year—prompting carriers to maintain strict individual risk assessments despite some cautious resumption of Suez sailings by MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and Cosco. Recent weekly AIS-tracked transits illustrate the pressure: 200 vessels for 3–9 August (lowest in 12 months, down from 226 the prior week) and earlier periods around 226–266, well below pre-crisis norms of roughly 450–500. Daily figures have fluctuated, with a spike to 46 crossings on August 18 amid partial recovery signals, yet tanker flows remain sparse and many operators reroute via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid premiums exceeding 1% of vessel value (up to 3% for certain Saudi-linked voyages). Market-implied odds place the highest probability (35%) on 220+, consistent with modest week-on-week gains if carriers sustain incremental increases. However, the combined 46% probability on ranges below 200 reflects persistent uncertainty from renewed threats, insurance repricing, and selective avoidance (particularly for Saudi-linked or non-exempt vessels), with lower buckets capturing downside risks from further incidents or broader rerouting. Chinese-linked tankers have secured some clearances, but overall sentiment embeds caution around resolution timing and potential last-minute disruptions in the week of August 24.