**Salihu Yakubu Danladi, the APC candidate and current Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, holds the leading position in the market at 64% following his decisive victory in the party’s May 2026 governorship primary.** He secured approximately 94,990 votes across all 16 local government areas, outpacing his closest rivals—including Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki (41,700 votes) and Dr. Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (22,118 votes)—in a process marked by earlier tensions over the governor’s initial preference for a different consensus figure and subsequent national-level intervention for a direct primary. This outcome has positioned Danladi as the ruling party’s standard-bearer for the 2027 election, with formal steps including receipt of the INEC nomination form and presentation to President Bola Tinubu. APC structures, including local government chairmen and assembly members, have since rallied behind him, emphasizing party unity and his grassroots support from Kwara North. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu, the PDP candidate who received his party’s certificate of return, trails at 19%, reflecting the opposition’s position in a state under APC control since 2019. Lower probabilities for figures such as Zakari Mohammed (7%) and Ajibade Adekunle (6.5%) align with their association with smaller or emerging platforms like the ADC amid ongoing realignments, including recent APC defections tied to senatorial contests. Recent internal party frictions and candidate substitutions have not materially shifted the APC’s frontrunner status ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSalihu Danladi 64%
Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu 19%
Zakari Mohammed 7%
Ajibade Adekunle 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Salihu Danladi
64%
Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu
19%
Zakari Mohammed
7%
Ajibade Adekunle
4%
Salihu Danladi 64%
Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu 19%
Zakari Mohammed 7%
Ajibade Adekunle 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Salihu Danladi
$4,264 Vol.
64%
Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu
$929 Vol.
19%
Zakari Mohammed
$274 Vol.
7%
Ajibade Adekunle
$146 Vol.
4%
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kwara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.**Salihu Yakubu Danladi, the APC candidate and current Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, holds the leading position in the market at 64% following his decisive victory in the party’s May 2026 governorship primary.** He secured approximately 94,990 votes across all 16 local government areas, outpacing his closest rivals—including Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki (41,700 votes) and Dr. Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (22,118 votes)—in a process marked by earlier tensions over the governor’s initial preference for a different consensus figure and subsequent national-level intervention for a direct primary.
This outcome has positioned Danladi as the ruling party’s standard-bearer for the 2027 election, with formal steps including receipt of the INEC nomination form and presentation to President Bola Tinubu. APC structures, including local government chairmen and assembly members, have since rallied behind him, emphasizing party unity and his grassroots support from Kwara North.
Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu, the PDP candidate who received his party’s certificate of return, trails at 19%, reflecting the opposition’s position in a state under APC control since 2019. Lower probabilities for figures such as Zakari Mohammed (7%) and Ajibade Adekunle (6.5%) align with their association with smaller or emerging platforms like the ADC amid ongoing realignments, including recent APC defections tied to senatorial contests. Recent internal party frictions and candidate substitutions have not materially shifted the APC’s frontrunner status ahead of the general election.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kwara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Volume
$5,613End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kwara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.**Salihu Yakubu Danladi, the APC candidate and current Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, holds the leading position in the market at 64% following his decisive victory in the party’s May 2026 governorship primary.** He secured approximately 94,990 votes across all 16 local government areas, outpacing his closest rivals—including Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki (41,700 votes) and Dr. Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (22,118 votes)—in a process marked by earlier tensions over the governor’s initial preference for a different consensus figure and subsequent national-level intervention for a direct primary.
This outcome has positioned Danladi as the ruling party’s standard-bearer for the 2027 election, with formal steps including receipt of the INEC nomination form and presentation to President Bola Tinubu. APC structures, including local government chairmen and assembly members, have since rallied behind him, emphasizing party unity and his grassroots support from Kwara North.
Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu, the PDP candidate who received his party’s certificate of return, trails at 19%, reflecting the opposition’s position in a state under APC control since 2019. Lower probabilities for figures such as Zakari Mohammed (7%) and Ajibade Adekunle (6.5%) align with their association with smaller or emerging platforms like the ADC amid ongoing realignments, including recent APC defections tied to senatorial contests. Recent internal party frictions and candidate substitutions have not materially shifted the APC’s frontrunner status ahead of the general election.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kwara State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Volume
$5,613End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Salihu Yakubu Danladi, the APC candidate and current Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, holds the leading position in the market at 64% following his decisive victory in the party’s May 2026 governorship primary.** He secured approximately 94,990 votes across all 16 local government areas, outpacing his closest rivals—including Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki (41,700 votes) and Dr. Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (22,118 votes)—in a process marked by earlier tensions over the governor’s initial preference for a different consensus figure and subsequent national-level intervention for a direct primary. This outcome has positioned Danladi as the ruling party’s standard-bearer for the 2027 election, with formal steps including receipt of the INEC nomination form and presentation to President Bola Tinubu. APC structures, including local government chairmen and assembly members, have since rallied behind him, emphasizing party unity and his grassroots support from Kwara North. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu, the PDP candidate who received his party’s certificate of return, trails at 19%, reflecting the opposition’s position in a state under APC control since 2019. Lower probabilities for figures such as Zakari Mohammed (7%) and Ajibade Adekunle (6.5%) align with their association with smaller or emerging platforms like the ADC amid ongoing realignments, including recent APC defections tied to senatorial contests. Recent internal party frictions and candidate substitutions have not materially shifted the APC’s frontrunner status ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions