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Politics·Peru

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

icon for Lima Mayoral Election Winner
Politics·Peru

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 38%

Francis James Allison Oyague 21%

Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega 7.3%

Samuel Marcos Daza Taype 6.9%

Polymarket

$52,003 Vol.

Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 38%

Francis James Allison Oyague 21%

Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega 7.3%

Samuel Marcos Daza Taype 6.9%

Polymarket

$52,003 Vol.

icon for Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca

Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca

$16,974 Vol.

38%

icon for Francis James Allison Oyague

Francis James Allison Oyague

$12,608 Vol.

21%

icon for Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega

Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega

$677 Vol.

7%

icon for Samuel Marcos Daza Taype

Samuel Marcos Daza Taype

$1,091 Vol.

7%

icon for Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera

Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera

$5,475 Vol.

7%

icon for Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli

Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli

$1,041 Vol.

5%

icon for Santiago Rosendo Abarca León

Santiago Rosendo Abarca León

$209 Vol.

4%

icon for Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay

Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay

$382 Vol.

4%

icon for Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza

Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza

$279 Vol.

3%

icon for Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué

Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué

$427 Vol.

3%

icon for Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino

Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino

$310 Vol.

3%

icon for Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra

Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra

$515 Vol.

3%

icon for Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar

Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar

$439 Vol.

3%

icon for Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo

Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo

$6,773 Vol.

3%

icon for Flor de María Hurtado Valdez

Flor de María Hurtado Valdez

$213 Vol.

3%

icon for Rubén José Ramírez Mateo

Rubén José Ramírez Mateo

$346 Vol.

3%

icon for Sandro Caller Gutiérrez

Sandro Caller Gutiérrez

$229 Vol.

2%

icon for Jessica Viviana Linares Romero

Jessica Viviana Linares Romero

$579 Vol.

2%

icon for Samir Frank Quispe Caballero

Samir Frank Quispe Caballero

$248 Vol.

2%

icon for Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés

Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés

$230 Vol.

1%

icon for Segundo Valdez Zavala

Segundo Valdez Zavala

$224 Vol.

1%

icon for Yehude Simón Munaro

Yehude Simón Munaro

$2,733 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).**The Lima mayoral race remains fragmented and closely contested ahead of the October 4, 2026, vote, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) at 37.5% followed by Francis Allison (Avanza País) at 21%.** Multiple other candidates, including Daniel Urresti, Samuel Daza, Susel Paredes, Ricardo Belmont, and Carlos Tejada, hold single-digit shares amid more than 20 registered contenders overall. Recent polling from firms such as Datum, CIT, and Ipsos shows Bruce and Allison frequently trading the top spots in the low-to-mid teens when López Aliaga is excluded, while high undecided or blank/null responses (often exceeding 20-30%) continue to compress any single frontrunner's lead. The substitution of Luis Rubio by Rafael López Aliaga on the Renovación Popular ticket after Rubio's resignation has shifted some surveys in López Aliaga's favor, though legal questions around the move and perceptions of an indirect re-election bid have kept the field open. Support varies by district and socioeconomic segment, further dispersing votes in a first-past-the-post system. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing the outcome as competitive rather than decisive. Upcoming debates, final poll releases, or last-minute withdrawals could consolidate preferences and widen gaps among the leaders.

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Volume
$52,003
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).**The Lima mayoral race remains fragmented and closely contested ahead of the October 4, 2026, vote, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) at 37.5% followed by Francis Allison (Avanza País) at 21%.** Multiple other candidates, including Daniel Urresti, Samuel Daza, Susel Paredes, Ricardo Belmont, and Carlos Tejada, hold single-digit shares amid more than 20 registered contenders overall. Recent polling from firms such as Datum, CIT, and Ipsos shows Bruce and Allison frequently trading the top spots in the low-to-mid teens when López Aliaga is excluded, while high undecided or blank/null responses (often exceeding 20-30%) continue to compress any single frontrunner's lead. The substitution of Luis Rubio by Rafael López Aliaga on the Renovación Popular ticket after Rubio's resignation has shifted some surveys in López Aliaga's favor, though legal questions around the move and perceptions of an indirect re-election bid have kept the field open. Support varies by district and socioeconomic segment, further dispersing votes in a first-past-the-post system. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing the outcome as competitive rather than decisive. Upcoming debates, final poll releases, or last-minute withdrawals could consolidate preferences and widen gaps among the leaders.

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Volume
$52,003
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lima Mayoral Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca" at 38%, followed by "Francis James Allison Oyague" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lima Mayoral Election Winner" has generated $52K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lima Mayoral Election Winner," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lima Mayoral Election Winner" is "Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Francis James Allison Oyague" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lima Mayoral Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.