Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal drug-trafficking and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela. He has pleaded not guilty, with his legal team mounting challenges to the circumstances of his arrest and extradition. A June 2027 trial date has been set, leaving substantial time for motions, potential plea negotiations, or procedural developments that could narrow or alter the charges. Traders assign 70% probability to “No” because high-profile U.S. prosecutions of foreign leaders frequently involve compromises, partial verdicts, or resolutions short of conviction on every count, reflecting the inherent uncertainties of complex federal litigation rather than any predetermined outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32% chance
$132,711 Vol.
$132,711 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
32% chance
$132,711 Vol.
$132,711 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal drug-trafficking and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela. He has pleaded not guilty, with his legal team mounting challenges to the circumstances of his arrest and extradition. A June 2027 trial date has been set, leaving substantial time for motions, potential plea negotiations, or procedural developments that could narrow or alter the charges. Traders assign 70% probability to “No” because high-profile U.S. prosecutions of foreign leaders frequently involve compromises, partial verdicts, or resolutions short of conviction on every count, reflecting the inherent uncertainties of complex federal litigation rather than any predetermined outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$132,711End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal drug-trafficking and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela. He has pleaded not guilty, with his legal team mounting challenges to the circumstances of his arrest and extradition. A June 2027 trial date has been set, leaving substantial time for motions, potential plea negotiations, or procedural developments that could narrow or alter the charges. Traders assign 70% probability to “No” because high-profile U.S. prosecutions of foreign leaders frequently involve compromises, partial verdicts, or resolutions short of conviction on every count, reflecting the inherent uncertainties of complex federal litigation rather than any predetermined outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$132,711End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal drug-trafficking and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Venezuela. He has pleaded not guilty, with his legal team mounting challenges to the circumstances of his arrest and extradition. A June 2027 trial date has been set, leaving substantial time for motions, potential plea negotiations, or procedural developments that could narrow or alter the charges. Traders assign 70% probability to “No” because high-profile U.S. prosecutions of foreign leaders frequently involve compromises, partial verdicts, or resolutions short of conviction on every count, reflecting the inherent uncertainties of complex federal litigation rather than any predetermined outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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