NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and complementary surveys have identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton-or-greater airburst or impact through the end of 2026. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, plus recent orbit refinements from James Webb Space Telescope observations, have ruled out previously flagged risks while cataloging only safe close approaches such as 2026 JH2. Heightened small-fireball detections early in the year remained well below the energy threshold and were tracked well in advance, underscoring the effectiveness of current detection networks. Traders therefore assign the 88.5 percent “No” probability because statistically rare events of this scale have no supporting detections, though a late-discovered small object remains the primary residual uncertainty before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12% chance
$200,197 Vol.
$200,197 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% chance
$200,197 Vol.
$200,197 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and complementary surveys have identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton-or-greater airburst or impact through the end of 2026. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, plus recent orbit refinements from James Webb Space Telescope observations, have ruled out previously flagged risks while cataloging only safe close approaches such as 2026 JH2. Heightened small-fireball detections early in the year remained well below the energy threshold and were tracked well in advance, underscoring the effectiveness of current detection networks. Traders therefore assign the 88.5 percent “No” probability because statistically rare events of this scale have no supporting detections, though a late-discovered small object remains the primary residual uncertainty before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$200,197End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and complementary surveys have identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton-or-greater airburst or impact through the end of 2026. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, plus recent orbit refinements from James Webb Space Telescope observations, have ruled out previously flagged risks while cataloging only safe close approaches such as 2026 JH2. Heightened small-fireball detections early in the year remained well below the energy threshold and were tracked well in advance, underscoring the effectiveness of current detection networks. Traders therefore assign the 88.5 percent “No” probability because statistically rare events of this scale have no supporting detections, though a late-discovered small object remains the primary residual uncertainty before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$200,197End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and complementary surveys have identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing a 10-kiloton-or-greater airburst or impact through the end of 2026. Continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring, plus recent orbit refinements from James Webb Space Telescope observations, have ruled out previously flagged risks while cataloging only safe close approaches such as 2026 JH2. Heightened small-fireball detections early in the year remained well below the energy threshold and were tracked well in advance, underscoring the effectiveness of current detection networks. Traders therefore assign the 88.5 percent “No” probability because statistically rare events of this scale have no supporting detections, though a late-discovered small object remains the primary residual uncertainty before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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