**No at 73% reflects the absence of qualifying events through late August 2026.** Official records from the National Hurricane Center show no Category 5 U.S. landfall, while USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes or VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions. A major meteor strike above 10 kt remains undetected by planetary defense networks. These thresholds are statistically rare on annual timescales: Cat 5 U.S. landfalls average roughly one every several years, 8.5+ quakes occur globally about once per decade on average, and VEI-6+ eruptions are even less frequent. Ongoing activity, including recent magnitude 7+ quakes in Indonesia and Colombia plus active tropical systems, has not crossed the defined criteria. Traders weigh the remaining 2026 hurricane season and seismic monitoring windows against this baseline, with new forecast updates and catalog releases likely to provide the next clear signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
27% chance
$241,714 Vol.
$241,714 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
27% chance
$241,714 Vol.
$241,714 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 73% reflects the absence of qualifying events through late August 2026.** Official records from the National Hurricane Center show no Category 5 U.S. landfall, while USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes or VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions. A major meteor strike above 10 kt remains undetected by planetary defense networks.
These thresholds are statistically rare on annual timescales: Cat 5 U.S. landfalls average roughly one every several years, 8.5+ quakes occur globally about once per decade on average, and VEI-6+ eruptions are even less frequent. Ongoing activity, including recent magnitude 7+ quakes in Indonesia and Colombia plus active tropical systems, has not crossed the defined criteria. Traders weigh the remaining 2026 hurricane season and seismic monitoring windows against this baseline, with new forecast updates and catalog releases likely to provide the next clear signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$241,714End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No at 73% reflects the absence of qualifying events through late August 2026.** Official records from the National Hurricane Center show no Category 5 U.S. landfall, while USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes or VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions. A major meteor strike above 10 kt remains undetected by planetary defense networks.
These thresholds are statistically rare on annual timescales: Cat 5 U.S. landfalls average roughly one every several years, 8.5+ quakes occur globally about once per decade on average, and VEI-6+ eruptions are even less frequent. Ongoing activity, including recent magnitude 7+ quakes in Indonesia and Colombia plus active tropical systems, has not crossed the defined criteria. Traders weigh the remaining 2026 hurricane season and seismic monitoring windows against this baseline, with new forecast updates and catalog releases likely to provide the next clear signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$241,714End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 73% reflects the absence of qualifying events through late August 2026.** Official records from the National Hurricane Center show no Category 5 U.S. landfall, while USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes or VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions. A major meteor strike above 10 kt remains undetected by planetary defense networks. These thresholds are statistically rare on annual timescales: Cat 5 U.S. landfalls average roughly one every several years, 8.5+ quakes occur globally about once per decade on average, and VEI-6+ eruptions are even less frequent. Ongoing activity, including recent magnitude 7+ quakes in Indonesia and Colombia plus active tropical systems, has not crossed the defined criteria. Traders weigh the remaining 2026 hurricane season and seismic monitoring windows against this baseline, with new forecast updates and catalog releases likely to provide the next clear signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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