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Politics·Africa

Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

icon for Nigerian Presidential Election Winner
Politics·Africa

Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

Bola Tinubu 69%

Peter Obi 23%

Rabiu Kwankwaso <1%

Rotimi Amaechi <1%

Polymarket

$103,988 Vol.

Bola Tinubu 69%

Peter Obi 23%

Rabiu Kwankwaso <1%

Rotimi Amaechi <1%

Polymarket

$103,988 Vol.

icon for Bola Tinubu

Bola Tinubu

$60,331 Vol.

69%

icon for Peter Obi

Peter Obi

$22,162 Vol.

23%

icon for Rabiu Kwankwaso

Rabiu Kwankwaso

$6,587 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rotimi Amaechi

Rotimi Amaechi

$7,409 Vol.

<1%

icon for Omoyele Sowore

Omoyele Sowore

$7,500 Vol.

<1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).Bola Tinubu holds the strongest trader consensus at 68.5% as the incumbent APC president seeking re-election in 2027, supported by party machinery, control over electoral institutions like INEC, and recent by-election successes that demonstrate organizational strength. Low approval ratings around 30-49% reflect public dissatisfaction with economic hardship, inflation, and security issues, yet these have not shifted odds sharply against him. Peter Obi at 22.5% benefits from higher favorability in opposition polls, though fragmented opposition coalitions and past vote-splitting limit his implied probability. INEC’s early August publication of 19 confirmed candidates, including Atiku Abubakar on the ADC ticket with Rotimi Amaechi, has reinforced expectations of divided anti-incumbent votes ahead of the January 16 vote. Minor candidates remain priced near even money due to negligible structural support.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).
Volume
$103,988
End Date
Jan 16, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 2:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).Bola Tinubu holds the strongest trader consensus at 68.5% as the incumbent APC president seeking re-election in 2027, supported by party machinery, control over electoral institutions like INEC, and recent by-election successes that demonstrate organizational strength. Low approval ratings around 30-49% reflect public dissatisfaction with economic hardship, inflation, and security issues, yet these have not shifted odds sharply against him. Peter Obi at 22.5% benefits from higher favorability in opposition polls, though fragmented opposition coalitions and past vote-splitting limit his implied probability. INEC’s early August publication of 19 confirmed candidates, including Atiku Abubakar on the ADC ticket with Rotimi Amaechi, has reinforced expectations of divided anti-incumbent votes ahead of the January 16 vote. Minor candidates remain priced near even money due to negligible structural support.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).
Volume
$103,988
End Date
Jan 16, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 2:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nigerian Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bola Tinubu" at 69%, followed by "Peter Obi" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nigerian Presidential Election Winner" has generated $104K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2027. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nigerian Presidential Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nigerian Presidential Election Winner" is "Bola Tinubu" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Peter Obi" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nigerian Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.